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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.
Job Losses, US Politics, Stimulus
The Week That Was:
- Another massive week for US stocks. The S&P 500 setting new all-time highs for its sixth straight record-setting advance as beneficiaries of the Fed’s easy policies and low interest rates. Apple added to being the world’s first $2 trillion public company and Tesla went over $2300 and on Monday $AAPL begins trading after a 4-for-1 split. $TSLA begins trading split-adjusted for it’s stock 5-for-1.
- Apple’s split changes its weight in the Dow, so the index is being adjusted and there will be new names in and old ones out. ExxonMobil, Pfizer and Raytheon will be replaced by Salesforce.com, Amgen and Honeywell.
- The Nasdaq Composite gained closed at a record high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 continued to rise
- On Friday all 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory, with energy (+1.9%), materials and nformation technology rising more than 1.0%. The health care sector +0.2% lagged.
- U.S. Treasuries finished mixed. The 2-yr yield was flat at 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 0.73%.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.7% to 92.32.
- WTI crude futures declined 0.1% to $42.97/bbl.
- The CBOE Volatility Index declined 6.2% to 22.96 after touching 26.30 at its intraday high.
- Gold futures erased its weekly declines Friday to end up 1.4% on the week settling at $1,974.90/oz after investors gauged the implications of the Fed’s policy of “Average Inflation Targeting” from Jackson Hole whereby the Fed would allow for above-target inflation for periods of time to balance times of below-target inflation. A weaker US dollar also helped Gold’s cause.
- We are seeing more of the bull mania after the Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
- Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.
- The US deals with a number of pharmaceutical giants have topped roughly $10.79 billion as part of Operation Warp Speed, a program led by several departments within the federal government to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
- The operation aims to provide at least 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The companies are Moderna Johnson & Johnson Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Pfizer and BioNTech Novavax and AstraZeneca
- Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
- There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.
- Japan’s Prime MInister Abe suddenly but it is not expected to change Japan’s policy blend.
- Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the border.
- China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
- Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
- Brexit and the EU is bubbling along.
- Politics is expected to become a bigger focus in the markets, as the Republican and Demcocrat conventions are out of the way.
- Democrats and Republicans have been far apart in terms of the contents of the package. Key is the $600 supplemental weekly aid for the unemployed that expired on July 31, and Republicans want to cut it to $200 a week while Democrats want to keep current levels.
- The two parties are also still far apart on the size of the package, after initially starting out with Democrats at $3 trillion and Republicans with $1 trillion. US
- President Trump signed an exective order to boost benefits by $300/week if individual states pay an extra $100/week.Additinally there was an order to defer payroll taxes The move also diminishes the urgency to make a deal.Talks for another Covid-19 relief package stalled on Friday..
- New round of polls suggest Democrats are well ahead of Trump in the November Preseidential election. Trump’s polling deficit is larger than any incumbent since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
- Biden has said he would seek to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which could potentially eat into profits and weigh on stock prices
- Job layoffs continued in the US. On Friday MGM Resorts said it is laying off 18,000 people, Coca-Cola said it was offering buyouts to 4,000 employees ahead of pending layoffs. United and American airlines said they will cut thousands of jobs unless Washington provides more financial aid. Salesforce said this week that it’s cutting 1,000 jobs. Bed Bath & Beyond cut 2,800 positions. Witht he job losses, protests and physicalogical affects of isloation consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, the Conference Board reported this week. Consumer spending historically makes up about 70% of the economic activity in the U.S.
- Trade talks between U.S. and China are still expected to recommit to deal. China has increased purchases of U.S. oil ahead of their trade deal review, according to Reuters.
- US/Sino trade has the wobbles after China ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in Chengdu in response to the U.S. ordering China to close its consulate in Houston
- Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the visrus more important then trade with China..
- In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..
- Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose.
- Banks are responding to the Federal Reserve in their annual stress test capped bank dividend payments and suspended share-buybacks for the third quarter.
Oil and Gas
- Brent and WTI crude benchmarks hit five-month highs during the week as U.S. producers cut crude output ahead of Laura at a rate close to the level of 2005′s Hurricane Katrina. WTI had a fourth straight weekly rise. However there was limited impact on offshore crude production or refinery activity after the storms passed.
- Natural gas futures continued to rally on Gulf storms, hot weather and near record long spec positions.
- One storm, Laura is tracking close to Florida, and a second storm named Marco looks to be heading across the Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf. It would be unprecedented in the era of satellites and modern hurricane tracking technology for two storms to arrive within 24 hours. The Weather Channel reports there was such an occurrence in September, 1933.
- U.S. energy firms kept the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating unchanged this week, resulting in the first monthly increase since December as higher crude prices prompt some producers to start drilling again..
Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.
On the Risk Radar
In todays sound bite, partisan world achieving full self-awareness has many roadblocks. Constantly we are faced by new biases from everything from the economy, geopolitics and the pandemic. We are trading in a fluid, constantly evolving world. Understand and admit you have biases is step one, with that be aware of mental obstacles that can be triggered. Remember we can’t fix what we don’t know. We aren’t all doctors when it comes to cures, sources and pandemics for one. We know we are living in a brutally divided political world and the upcoming presidential election will trigger biases. For your investing (and mental health) maintaining an open mindset, diversify your influener and media sources so you can not get caught with bias inertia or blindness.
The reality is we are experiencing brutal times for workers still. Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported another million Americans applied for unemployment benefits. With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. As economies slowly reopened, the economy generated than 9 million jobs in May, June and July. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and will they come back?
The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure. Where to from here?
November US Election
The upcoming presidential election is another risk with RealClearPolitics having President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty. Trump is likely to be pushed by Powell for more stimulus and Trump is likely to move on this with the threat of more economic damage.
Geopolitically the US-Sino rhetoric is heating up and spilling over into Hong Kong and beyond. We expect continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq.
Fat Tail Virus Risk
Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?
BE AWARE: Stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses. Put all that together and we see the result. Again this isn’t unprecendented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ….
Remember, nothing is as it seems.
Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list. Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide.
Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have the potential to impact growth strategies with unexpected consequences with this markets are also vulnerable. In a fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed. Was Coronavirus that dreaded black swan?
Behind it all is world wide low interest rates and QE pump priming by the world’s major central banks, the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank and ECB all preached more of the same. This has just been ramped up a notch.
Meanwhile tje Fed is committed to about 50 Billion a day in repo, funds into the system to maintain liquidity, in its not QE4 repo program.The consumer had been keeping the economy robust. How will they act to alleviate the panic of the market drop, this is essential given the security of the repos they have out.
“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”
The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan
In the new week we get to see how jobs are doing. In the US the August nonfarm payrolls report and Canadian employment figures drop Friday. We get the latest PMIs out of China. Look for Fed speakers after Jackson Hole to keep the mantra of QE infinity and TALF for open-ended Treasuries, MBS and corporate bonds in amounts needed. Fed will continue to buy paper at current pace of $120B/month of Treasuries and MBS combined. Compare that to $40B/month in QE3. Politics will become a bigger focus in the markets as the political conventions are done and dusted.
Other key data in the week ahead that should show how manufacturing and the consumer are faring.
The jobs data is pertinent with the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edging higher, instead of falling back. Weekly jobless claims will be important Thursday to see if there’s a drop in continuing clams, after July’s employment report The n we get the August jobs report Friday.
The latest Covid worries worry any rebound in the U.S. economy. Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and another larger than expected bounce in employment data last month, have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.
Will the markets remain fixated on the COVID-19 news such as the infections count update, vacinations and the like?
There is some important data in the week ahead,
- Monday: 9:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI, 10:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
- Tuesday: Vehicle sales, 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 15:30 API Oil Inventories
- Wednesday: US Mortgage Applications, 8:15 a.m. ADP 10:00 a.m. Factory orderss, 10:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams 10:30 EIA Crude Oil Invemtories, 12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 2:00 p.m. Beige book
- Thursday: 7:30 a.m. Challenger layoffs, 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Trade balance 9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage 12:00 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
- Friday: 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls report, 13.00 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and CFTC Speculative net positions
For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have trade wars.
Earnings for the week ahead are minimal as the season winds down.
Given that is a known investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.
Last week we heard from Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Autodesk (ADSK), JM Smucker (SJM), Hormel (HRL), Best Buy (BBY); Salesforce (CRM), Intuit (INTU), Nordstrom (JWN), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Splunk (SPLK), NetApp (NTAP), William-Sonoma (WSM), Tiffany (TIF), Dollar General (DG), Coty (COTY), HP Inc (HPQ), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL); Gap (GPS), Okta (OKTA), Workday (WDAY), VMWare (VMW), Dick;s Sporting Goods (DKS) Ulta (ULTA), Dell (DELL) Big Lots (BIG)
We start off on Monday with earnings from: Zoom ;
Tuesday Earnings Include:H&R Block
Wednesday Earnings Include:Cloudera, Macy’s, Brown Forman, Rocket, PVH;
Thursday Earnings Include:Broadcom, Campbell’s Soup, Signet Jewelers, Docusign;
Friday Earnings Include:
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Coronavirus Highest Risk International Cities Bangkok, Hong Kong and Taipei
- Fitch Affirms United States at ‘AAA’ BUT With Negative Outlook
- U.S. Oil Rigs Fall Back To All Time Low, Natural Gas Rise 1
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +26 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Storage
- Federal Reserve Continue Same Path of QE Cites Economic Activity and Employment
- Around The Barrel – US Crude Oil Inventories Draw Much Larger Than Expected -10612Kbbls
- Electronic Arts Earnings Soar with Stay at Home Gamers During Covid Lockdown
- Chevron Posts Massive 8.3 billion Loss After Coronavirus Pandemic Crushed Demand
- ExxonMobil Posts Another Quarterly Loss With Global Shutdown Damage
- Apple Announces 4-for-1 Stock Split as Earnings Soar Despite Covid Disruptions
- Halliburton Delivers Surprise Profit Despite Pandemic HitOil and Gas Industry
- Netflix Shares Dump on Weak Subscriber Growth Guidance Despite Higher Revenue
US Major Stock Indices
US Stock Indices Performance
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
S&P 500 Index via @KnovaWave
The SPX reacted off +2/8 #MurreyMath Daily after 5 waves & quickly came back to retest it. Double top i.e a competitive C or i ? Again it tested and held Tenkan Friday. Alternatives completed C Wave or a Wave 1. Support is Kijun and cloud and Chikou rebalance. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .
The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.
Weekly #SPX closed at MM +2/8 for 2nd week which is also breakdown retest. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. Bulls looking for Tenkan to accelerate thru 200wma , bears failure. We look for 3 waves down and MM grid for wave clues. Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances
Semiconductors ETF – SMH
( Leading underlying strength of US Indices)
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.
WTI after it’s huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.
Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.
Silver did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii but here is also a chance this is an A
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off. Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up,
Euro – EURUSD
The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
Japanese Yen still stuck in channel trade, a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off
Mexican Peso USDMXN
The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud Impulse is needed to pull away from here. Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.
Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud – we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Sunday, August 23, 2020
- 18:45 NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2)
Monday, August 31, 2020
- All Day Holiday United Kingdom – Bank Holiday
- 01:00 JPY Household Confidence (Aug)
- 01:10 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Jul)
- 01:45 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Jul)
- 02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Current account (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 05:00 EUR Italian HICP (MoM) (Aug)
- 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 08:00 ZAR Trade Balance (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD RMPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 09:00 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Aug)
- 10:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Jun)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 18:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Aug)
- 18:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)
- 18:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (Q2)
- 19:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Jul)
- 19:50 JPY Capital Spending (YoY) (Q2)
- 20:00 KRW Trade Balance (Aug)
- 20:30 KRW Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 21:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Jul)
- 21:30 AUD Current Account (Q2)
- 21:30 AUD Net Exports Contribution (Q2)
- 21:30 AUD Private House Approvals (Jul)
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
Tuesday, September 1, 2020
- 00:00 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
- 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
- 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
- 02:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 CHF procure.ch PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jul)
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP BoE Consumer Credit (Jul)
- 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (Jul)
- 04:30 HKD Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
- 05:00 GBP BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
- 05:00 EUR French Car Registration (YoY)
- 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Jul)
- 08:55 USD Redbook
- 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug)
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Aug)
- 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Aug)
- 11:00 NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 1
- 2:00 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (Q2)
- 19:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales
- 19:00 KRW CPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 19:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)
- 19:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY)
- 21:30 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
- 21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release
Wednesday, September 2, 2020
- 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
- 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
- 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
- 09:30 USD Seevol Cushing Storage Report
- 09:45 USD ISM NY Business Conditions (Aug)
- 09:45 USD ISM-New York Index (Aug)
- 10:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 10:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
- 14:00 USD Beige Book
- 14:00 USD Sec Kashkari Speaks
- 17:00 KRW FX Reserves – USD (Aug)
- 18:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Aug)
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI 20:30 JPY Services PMI (Aug)
- 20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Jul)
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Aug)
- 21:45 CNY Chinese Composite PMI (Aug)
- 23:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction
Thursday, September 3, 2020
- 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (Aug)
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Aug)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Aug)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Composite PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Aug)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
- 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Jul)
- 09:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
- 19:00 KRW Current Account (Jul)
- 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Aug)
- 21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
Friday, September 4, 2020
- 01:00 SGD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul)
- 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Jul)
- 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Jul)
- 03:30 EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Inflation Expectations
- 05:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
- 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
- 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Participation Rate (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI n.s.a (Aug)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Aug)
- 11:00 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC Speculative net positions
- 18:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Aug)
Saturday, September 5, 2020
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