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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.
Gold, Apple, Stimulus
The Week That Was:
- Gold was the stand out this week. Gold futures settled at $1,962.8 per ounce, a new record close, after earlier rising to a new all-time intraday high of $2,005.40. Gold also posted its eight straight week of gains for its longest weekly winning streak since 2006. For the month gold gained 9.01% for its best month since Feb. 2016. It was the fifth straight month of gains, and the longest monthly winning streak since Dec. 2010. Stocks got a boost after private equity saw value up here. Kansas City Southern jumped 15% after Dow Jones reported Blackstone and Global Infrastructure Partners were two of the interested parties.
- Apple became the most valuable company in the world after shares jumped more than 10.47%% on Friday to touch a new all-time high of $425.68 after earnings and announcing a 4-1 stock split, which gives the company a market capitalization of more than $1.841 trillion. This puts the tech giant ahead of Saudi Aramco, which is valued at $1.759 trillion, according to FactSet.
- This week alone, gold is up nearly 5% and silver has surged more than 16% in that time.
- We are seeing some air out of the bull mania after the Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
- Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.
- Dr. Anthony Fauci’s prediced a coronavirus vaccine would be “widely available” after the first few months of 2021 seems reasonable given the current timeline of the major candidates, and there was likely to be tens of millions of doses of vaccines ready by the start of the year, with wider access still a few months off. .
- Hope fuels the reopening trade boost.
- Florida has reported more confirmed coronavirus cases than New York state, which was once the epicenter of the pandemic.
- Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
- There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.
- Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the border.
- China ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in Chengdu in response to the U.S. ordering China to close its consulate in Houston
- China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
- Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
- Brexit and the EU is bubbling along.
- New round of polls suggest Democrats are well ahead of Trump in the November Preseidential election. Trump’s polling deficit is larger than any incumbent since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
- Biden has said he would seek to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which could potentially eat into profits and weigh on stock prices
- Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow on Friday released its first Q3 estimate for gross domestic product growth at 11.9%. That comes on the heels of a second quarter decline of 32.9%, the worst annualized drop for a single quarter in recorded history.
- Ratings agency Firch reaffirmrd the USA at AAA BUT put it on negative outlook.
- US/Sino trade has the wobbles after China ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in Chengdu in response to the U.S. ordering China to close its consulate in Houston
- Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the visrus more important then trade with China..
- In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..
- Wells Fargo was forced in March and April to sell about 10% in the assets than it typically does to stay beneath its Federal Reserve asset cap, The Wall Street Journal reported.
- Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose.
- Banks are responding to the Federal Reserve in their annual stress test capped bank dividend payments and suspended share-buybacks for the third quarter.
Oil and Gas
- Crude oil continued to grind through a narrowing range against the $40-41 zone in what looks like an Ascending Triangle pattern developing the last few weeks. Monitor resistance for a breakout over $43 or a breakdown below its uptrend for a drop back below $35 towards its rising 50-day moving average.
- Energy majors Exxon and Chevron earnings showed jsut how much oil and gas prices record lows on April 20 hurt.
- Oil also got support from Baker Hughes reported U.S. oil and natural gas rigs operating fell back to an all-time low for eighteen consecutive weeks..
Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.
On the Risk Radar
In todays sound bite, partisan world achieving full self-awareness has many roadblocks. Constantly we are faced by new biases from everything from the economy, geopolitics and the pandemic. We are trading in a fluid, constantly evolving world. Understand and admit you have biases is step one, with that be aware of mental obstacles that can be triggered. Remember we can’t fix what we don’t know. We aren’t all doctors when it comes to cures, sources and pandemics for one. We know we are living in a brutally divided political world and the upcoming presidential election will trigger biases. For your investing (and mental health) maintaining an open mindset, diversify your influener and media sources so you can not get caught with bias inertia or blindness.
The reality is we are experiencing unprecedented levels of unemployment claims. We continue to add over 1.2 million new jobless claims each week after the US Labor Department reported the jobless claims of over 47 million in just eleven weeks as the Coronavirus hits the economy. This sends the unemployment rate soaring to near 15%.
The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure. Where to from here?
November US Election
The upcoming presidential election is another risk with RealClearPolitics having President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty. Trump is likely to be pushed by Powell for more stimulus and Trump is likely to move on this with the threat of more economic damage.
Geopolitically the US-Sino rhetoric is heating up and spilling over into Hong Kong and beyond. We expect continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq.
Fat Tail Virus Risk
Historically bear market rallies are fast and furious, and we are at the beginning of an economic recession (depression). In 2008 we had a 20% and 25% bounce in the S&P 500 during the total 57% top to bottom price fall. For the virus we have the great unknown with medical expertise not at a consensus how the virus destruction and recovery will play out.
Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?
Our best advice is stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses. Put all that together and we see the result. Again this isn’t unprecendented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ….
Remember, nothing is as it seems.
Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list. Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide.
Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have the potential to impact growth strategies with unexpected consequences with this markets are also vulnerable. In a fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed. Was Coronavirus that dreaded black swan?
Behind it all is world wide low interest rates and QE pump priming by the world’s major central banks, the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank and ECB all preached more of the same. This has just been ramped up a notch.
Meanwhile tje Fed is committed to about 50 Billion a day in repo, funds into the system to maintain liquidity, in its not QE4 repo program.The consumer had been keeping the economy robust. How will they act to alleviate the panic of the market drop, this is essential given the security of the repos they have out.
“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”
The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan
In the new week we get to see the global PMI’s to see how manufacturing and services are responding to the Covid crisis. For central banks we have a number of Fed talkers and the RBA and BoE meetings after after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their July meeting, kept QE infinity open with TALF for open-ended Treasuries, MBS and corporate bonds in amounts needed. Fed will continue to buy paper at current pace of $120B/month of Treasuries and MBS combined. Compare that to $40B/month in QE3.
We finish up with Friday’s July employment report. The focus before will be on Congress and a new fiscal spending package. What of the $600 a week unemployment supplement that was set to expire July 31. Former vice president Joe Biden is also expected to name his running mate in the coming week.
The jobs data is pertinent with the number of people filing for unemployment benefits edging higher, instead of falling back. According to Refinitiv, about 1.36 million new jobs are expected, well below the 4.8 million added in June, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.7% from 11.1%. Weekly jobless claims will be important Thursday to see if there’s a drop in continuing clams, after June’s employment report
The latest Covid worries worry any rebound in the U.S. economy. Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and another larger than expected bounce in employment data last month, have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and last Wednesday the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.
Will the markets remain fixated on the COVID-19 news such as the infections count update, vacinations and the like?
There is some important data in the week ahead,
- Monday: Vehicle sales, Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction spending, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Senior loan officer survey
- Tuesday: Factory orders, API Oil Inventories
- Wednesday: US Mortgage Applications, ADP employment, International trade, Services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing, EIA Crude Oil Invemtories, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
- Thursday: US Weekly jobless claims,Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, EIA Natural Gas Storage
- Friday: US Employment, Wholesale trade,Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, Consumer credit and CFTC Speculative net positions
For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5 . Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have trade wars.
Earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to decline by 40.3% for the second quarter, based on the results of companies that have already reported and estimates, according to Refinifiv’s I/B/E/S. Technology earnings are expected to have one of the smallest profit declines, at just 4.4% on average
Given that is a known investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.
Last week we heard from Albertson’s, F5 Networks, Hasbro, NXP Semiconductor, LVMH, Avery Dennison, Legg Mason, Ryanair, SAP, TrueBlue, National Oilwell Varco, Beyond Meat, 3M Amgen, Mondelez, Chubb, Aflac, DR Horton, Raytheon, Invesco, MSCI, Rockwell Automation, Altria, Laboratory Corp, Martin Marietta, Roper Tech, Harley-Davidson, Canon, Nissan, Centene, Polaris, Sherwin-Williams, Corning, Boyd Gaming, Akamai, Lattice Semiconductor, Advanced Micro Devices, Visa, Juniper Networks McDonald’s, Pfizer, Starbucks eBay Corning, General Electric, Boston Scientific, Anthem, Sanofi, General Dynamics GlaxoSmithkline, General Motors, Norfolk Southern, Qualcomm, Yum China, PayPal, Cheesecake Factory, Spotify, Owens Corning, Barclays, Deutsche Bank Boeing Shopify Spotify, Facebook, Paramount ServiceNow, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Procter and Gamble, Comcast, Ford, Shake Shack, Dunkin Brands, Cigna, Dupont, Eli Lily, Northrop Grumman, Textron, Valero, ConocoPhillips, Comcast, Kellogg, AstraZeneca, Kraft Heinz, Southern Co., Stryker, Generac, Stanley Black and Decker, Marsh and McLennan, Electronic Arts Gilead Ford Motor Stryker MasterCard Anheuser-Busch Northrop Grumman, AstraZeneca, Caterpillar, Merck, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Illinois Tool Works, Colgate-Palmolive, Lazard, Booz Allen Hamilton, LyondellBasell, Weyerhaeuser, Newell Brands
We start off on Monday with earnings from: AIG, Clorox, Cirrus Logic, KLA, Rambus, Virgin Galactica, Take-Two Interactive, Mosaic, Vornado, Eastman Chemical, Leggett and Platt, Hyatt Hotels, McKesson, Tyson Foods, Tenet Healthcare, Ingersoll-Rand, Marathon Petroleum, HSBC
Tuesday Earnings Include: Walt Disney Co, Sony, Bayer, BP, Diageo, KKR, AMC Networks, Exelon, Incyte, Cyberark Software, Allegheny Tech, Vulcan Materials, Activision Blizzard, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Boingo Wireless, Devon Energy, Ethan Allen, Western Union, Planet Fitness, Monster Beverage, Allstate, Pioneer Natural Resources, Owens-Illinois, Gartner
Wednesday Earnings Include: Wayfair, New York Times, Sempra Energy, Square, Zynga, Fitbit, AmerisourceBergen, Capri Holdings, BorgWarner, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Humana, Allianz, Cedar Fair, Tanger Factory Outlet, Marathon Oil, Etsy, Olin, Iamgold, Noble Corp, Wendy’s, CF Industries, CenturyLink, Varian Medical, Copa Holdings, American Water Works
Thursday Earnings Include: Bristol-Myers Squibb, News Corp, ViacomCBS, Cardinal Health, Mylan,Mylan, Booking Holdings, Uber Technologies, First Solar, Zillow, Cushman and Wakefield, Datadog, Dropbox, Murphy Oil, Hilton Worldwide, Papa John’s, Zoetis, Sealed Air, Ball Corp, AXA, ING, Adidas, Siemens, Nintendo, Toyota
Friday Earnings Include: Noble Energy, Virtu Financial, Berkshire Hathaway
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Coronavirus Highest Risk International Cities Bangkok, Hong Kong and Taipei
- Fitch Affirms United States at ‘AAA’ BUT With Negative Outlook
- U.S. Oil Rigs Fall Back To All Time Low, Natural Gas Rise 1
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +26 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Storage
- Federal Reserve Continue Same Path of QE Cites Economic Activity and Employment
- Around The Barrel – US Crude Oil Inventories Draw Much Larger Than Expected -10612Kbbls
- Electronic Arts Earnings Soar with Stay at Home Gamers During Covid Lockdown
- Chevron Posts Massive 8.3 billion Loss After Coronavirus Pandemic Crushed Demand
- ExxonMobil Posts Another Quarterly Loss With Global Shutdown Damage
- Apple Announces 4-for-1 Stock Split as Earnings Soar Despite Covid Disruptions
- Halliburton Delivers Surprise Profit Despite Pandemic HitOil and Gas Industry
- Netflix Shares Dump on Weak Subscriber Growth Guidance Despite Higher Revenue
US Major Stock Indices
US Stock Indices Performance
- On Friday the Dow rose 0.44% for its second positive day in three
- The Dow closed down 0.16% for its second straight negative week
- The Dow rallied 2.38% for its fourth straight positive month
- On Friday: the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.49% for its third straight positive day
- This week the Nasdaq Composite closed up 3.69% for its first positive week in three
- For July the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.82% for its fourth straight positive month.
- On Friday the S&P 500 advanced 0.77% for its second positive day in three
- This week S&P advanced 1.73% for its fourth positive week in five
- For July the S&P 500 gained 5.51% for its fourth straight positive month and its best July since 2010
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
S&P 500 Index via @KnovaWave
The SPX reacted off +2/8 #MurreyMath Daily after 5 waves & quickly came back to retest it. Double top i.e a competitive C or i ? Again it tested and held Tenkan Friday. Alternatives completed C Wave or a Wave 1. Support is Kijun and cloud and Chikou rebalance. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .
The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.
Weekly #SPX closed at MM +2/8 for 2nd week which is also breakdown retest. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. Bulls looking for Tenkan to accelerate thru 200wma , bears failure. We look for 3 waves down and MM grid for wave clues. Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances
Semiconductors ETF – SMH
( Leading underlying strength of US Indices)
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.
WTI after it’s huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.
Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.
Silver did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii but here is also a chance this is an A
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off. Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up,
Euro – EURUSD
The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked. Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
Classic channel trade, has been a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off
Mexican Peso USDMXN
The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud Impulse is needed to pull away from here. Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.
Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud – we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Sunday, August 2, 2020
- 18:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Jul)
- 19:50 JPY GDP (QoQ)
- 19:50 JPY GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ)
- 19:50 JPY GDP External Demand (QoQ)
- 19:50 JPY GDP Price Index (YoY)
- 19:50 JPY GDP Private Consumption (QoQ)
- 20:30 KRW Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Monday, August 3, 2020
- All Day Holiday Canada – Civic Holiday
- 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 03:30 CHF procure.ch PMI (Jul)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 09:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun)
- 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 14:00 USD Loan Officer Survey
- 19:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales
- 19:00 KRW CPI (MoM) (Jul)
- 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jul) 1
- 9:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY)
- 21:00 AUD Trade Balance (Jun)
- 21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Tuesday, August 4, 2020
- 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
- 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
- 01:45 CHF SECO Consumer Climate (Q3)
- 02:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
- 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Jun)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
- 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 09:45 USD ISM NY Business Conditions (Jul)
- 09:45 USD ISM-New York Index (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)
- 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- 11:20 NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 17:00 KRW FX Reserves – USD (Jul)
- 18:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Jul)
- 18:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
- 18:45 NZD Participation Rate (Q2)
- 18:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (Q2)
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI
- 20:30 JPY Services PMI (Jul)
- 20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM
- ) 21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Jul)
- 21:45 CNY Chinese Composite PMI (Jul)
- 22:30 SGD Unemployment Rate Legend
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
- 01:00 SGD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Jul)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Composite PMI (Jul)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Jul)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Jul)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Jul)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Jul)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jul)
- 04:30 GBP Composite PMI (Jul)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Jul)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
- 06:30 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
- 06:45 GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Jun)
- 09:30 USD Seevol Cushing Storage Report
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jul)
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2)
- 19:00 KRW Current Account (Jun)
- 23:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ))
Thursday, August 6, 2020
- 02:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
- 02:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
- 02:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)
- 03:30 EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (Jul)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Jul)
- 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 12:00 GBP BoE Financial Stability Report
- 18:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Jul)
- 19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Jun)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Reserves (USD)
- 21:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD Invest Housing Finance (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday, August 7, 2020
- 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jun)
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Jun)
- 02:00 EUR Gemran Current Account Balance n.s.a (Jun)
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
- 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Jun)
- 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Jun)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
- 02:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2)
- 02:45 EUR French Reserve Assets Total (Jul)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Jun)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
- 03:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
- 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0
- 4:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance EU (Jun)
- 04:12 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Jul)
- 04:30 HKD Foreign Reserves (USD) (Jul)
- 05:00 SGD Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
- 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul)
- 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (Jul)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Jul)
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Jun)
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Saturday, August 8, 2020
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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.