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FEAR NOT Brave Investors :
Trade Wars, Trump, China, Turkey and Jackson Hole
Another week of political chaos, trade wars with Turkey continuing to unravel. Earnings wise we had a big beat from Walmart but a outlook warning from NVidia. Emerging markets selling we saw a flight to the US Dollar which slowed by week’s end. Rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk, the S&P 500 is just 1.3 percent from it’s all time high.
Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.
The week ahead begins with the Deutsche Bundesbank monthly report on Monday with the rhetoric heating up with the August Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium starting Aug. 23. Talks restart with China Wednesday and Thursday, the same day a new set of tariffs on Chinese goods are due to take affect. U.S. officials will also meet with European officials Monday and continue talks with Mexico.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday speech on ‘monetary policy in a changing economy’ at the Jackson Hole summit will be the hype of the week.
We get a warm up Wednesday with the release of FOMC minutes Sanctions against Russia take effect. Back in Europe the euro-area flash PMI survey on Thursday will help us gage if momentum is picking up as expected. If thats not enough you have more POTUS tweets to keep us busy and the Turkey and Iran situations.
Earnings wise with the trade war cascading we get Chinese stocks, including Alibaba and Momo. For Commodities we get BHP Billiton and for the U.S. economy; Toll Brothers, Target and Lowe’s report.
–comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
- U.S. Oil Rig Count Unchanged As Production Rises Again
- Zoe’s Kitchen Bought Out By Cava Group
- EIA Reports Build of 33 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories
- Australian Full Time Jobs Strengthen as Unemployment Falls
- Huge Build in Crude Oil Inventories as Production Rises Again
- Carrizo Buys Devon Energy Non-Core Delaware Basin Acreage
- Spanish, Italian and French Banks Are Most Exposed to Turkey
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report August 2018
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings Reports
- Deere Earnings Hit By Raw Materials and Freight Costs
- NVidia Earnings Beat on DataCenter and Gaming Revenues But Guides Lower
- Walmart Raise Earnings Outllook as Retail and Online Sales Jump
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Wiinners and Losers Last Week*
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
US Yield Curve & SPX
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodity Markets
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
Euro (EURUSD)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Monday Aug 20
- Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
- 09:15 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks ‘
- 11:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 12:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 18:00 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Tuesday Aug 21
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 1.910%
- 16:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 23:10 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
Wednesday Aug 22
- All Day Holiday Singapore – Hari Raya Haji
- All Day Holiday India – Eid al-Adha
- 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
- 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
- 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
- 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 22:45 AUD RBA Assist Gov Boulton Speaks
Thursday Aug 23
- 03:00 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:00 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:00 EUR French Services PMI (Aug) 55.1 54.9
- 03:30 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Aug)
- 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
- Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (Jul)
- 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Aug)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
- 13:00 USD 5-Year TIPS Auction
Friday Aug 24
- 02:00 EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q2)
- 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
- 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
- Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium
- 10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday August 20
Before Open
- Estee Lauder $EL
- NB Global Floating Rate $NBLS
After Close
- BETTER ONLN SOL $BOSC
- BHP Billiton PLC $BLT
- LATAM AIRLINES $LTM
- NORDSON CORP $NDSN
Tuesday August 21
Before Open
- COTY INC $COTY
- GAZIT GLOBE LTD $GZT
- KOHLS CORP $KSS
- MEDTRONIC $MDT
- SMUCKER JM $SJM
- SUPERIOR GOLD $SGI
- TJX $TJX
After Close
- LA-Z-BOY INC $LZB
- URBAN OUTFITTER $URBN
Wednesday August 22
Before Open
- ANALOG DEVICES $ADI
- BARNES NOB EDUC $BNED
- LOWES COS $LOW
- TARGET CORP $TGT
After Close
- HUAZHU GROUP $HTHT
- QAD INC-A $QADA
- L BRANDS $LB
- SYNOPSYS $SNPS
- STEIN MART INC $SMRT
- ZAYO GROUP HLDG $ZAYO
Thursday August 23
Before Open
- ALIBABA GROUP $BABA
- AUTODESK $ADSK
- FLY LEASING LTD $FLY
- HORMEL FOODS CP $HRL
- TORO CO $TTC
After Close
- GAP INC $GPS
- GLOBANT SA $GLOB
- HP INC $HPQ
- INTUIT INC $INTU
- ROSS STORES $ROST
Friday August 24
Before Open
- FOOT LOCKER INC $FL
After Close
- Nil
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!