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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Nurtured Greed, Earnings and Herd Reflexability
The Week That Was:
Another week, just like the previous with no fear and an insatiable rush to buy stocks, earnings misses are ignored, economic data is seen as you want to see, this US GDP for Q1 a flashing example. Oil pulled back from its lofty highs with some waiver rumor and POTUS tweeting he spoke to OPEC, in turn OPEC officials took pains to say ahem not to me. Of course we got the gleeful tweets of how great it all is and new stock market highs from President Trump.
Ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The CBOE Volatility Index fell to another fresh six-month low. There is NO Fear despite major nations in political chaos, including G-5 nations the US, France and the UK,
Economic reports for the most part continue to dissappoint, as said earlier the odd positive report is latched onto by the market. Be aware of the herd, the machines and the greed. Despite all the chaos we sit just over 2900 on the S&P as the so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. WTI plays around $64 despite waiver extensions and OPEC giving mixed signals again as Gasoline draws weigh causing over $4 Gasoline in some parts of America BEFORE Summer.
The Week Ahead
We start off the week with Personal Income and Spending which include some make-up data that was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) account for 69% of GDP, an important guage on an economy betting on the consumer. Focus will be on the global PMI’s and the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings this week. We end the week with the April jobs report. The issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. The punters are fully loaded with ATH stocks and a 2 year high USD, reeking havoc on emerging economies and risk profiles. What could go wrong?
Keep an eye on last’s week’s IPO after the dismal reversal of Lyft’s IPO. Seven companies are scheduled to raise $1.0 billion in IPO’s this week. Plant-based burger maker Beyond Meat is the buzz with it’s strong consumer brand, and multi-billion dollar market. Two Chinese technology plays with $1+ billion valuations, So-Young International and Yunji. Last week we had tech unicorns Pinterest and Zoom. For May there already 12 new filings including Uber (UBER).
It is now over two months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house has said it needs more time. Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means theFragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 11 weeks of losses in the last 12 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included155 companies representing over $9 trillion in market capitalization, more than 35 percent of the total for the S&P 500 index, including Amazon, Facebook, Halliburton, Harley Davidson, Jet Blue, Twitter and Dow components such as Caterpillar, United Technologies, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Proctor and Gamble, Verizon, Chevron and Exxon Mobil are up. This week we have Alphabet, Diamond Offshore, Spotify, Apple, General Electric, General Motors, Advanced Micro Devices, CVS, Estee Lauder and Dow Chemical
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- U.S. Takes off Another 20 Oil Rigs With Production Back To Record Highs
- US Advance Estimates Q1 GDP +3.2% v +2.3% ExpectedExpected
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of 92 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Builds +5479Mb With Production Back at Record High
- Bank of Canada Holding Interest Rate at 1.75% Cutting Growth Forecast as Expected
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- ExxonMobil Earnings Hurt By Refining and Chemical Margins
- Caterpillar Earnings Beat BUT Warns on Aggressive China Pricing
- Texas Instruments Guides Lower on Weak Analog and Embedded Processing
- Twitter Earnings Beat With Rise in Advertising Engagement Revenue
- Halliburton Revenue Higher, Says Pricing Deterioration Over
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX momentum continued with a sharp thrust Friday to ATH as the downside holding the daily tenkan between +2/8 and +3/8 MurreyMath and the chikou.
On the weekly we see the breakdown retest from last year being retested.with ATH and at +1/8. All well overbought signals, caution if long with target now met from the 1.618% downside extenstion break retention.
10 Year Treasury Note
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The daily WTi reversed back inside the pennant and accelrated lower though the tenkan (orange) closing the week with a bounce off thr Kijun (pink) and lower pennant confluence. The question is of degree in the 5 of the C.
WTI rests in the cloud on the weekly after spat the previous break retest from a year ago and back through the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support – watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas closed back over the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math after failing to run getting just over the tenkan but again no momentum. Above ijun, ma and 50 dma.
Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced but as daily also showed a lack of impulse both ways. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar spat the weekly Tenkan and Kijun but with no impulse and down it came to trade under the .70 cent level but stayed in the range of 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math. Elections ahead may get some volatility.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The kiwi broke under its daily channel, coming back to retest it and the tenkan after finding the Murrey Math 4/8. Is this a break or a new range?
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
The Loonie used the energy from the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 to break the weekly pennant (white), from here tenkan and break points. The Kijun closed through the Tenkan.
The Euro Weekly spat the recent lows again after testing the channel and potential bull flag. Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply.
The channel that is Brexit closed over the Tenkan as the EURUSD component held the channel, back testing the chikou and lower band. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
The dollar yen spat the previous highs at a time when the USD index was make significant highs, divergence between the Yen and other currencies.In an environment that is risk off this is a warning shot.. Downside is tenkan (orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
The Mexican peso tested the bottom of the cloud then weakened this week with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the tenkan in the USDMZN with the Daily 0/8 Murrey Math support.
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
The $USDTRY continued to benefit from the Lire weakening. We are above the +2/8 Murrey Math and the downside the Kijun, The 50 also supported. Ten weeks of losses in the last 11 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year.
Bitcoin failed above the pennant and the daily tenkan after flirting with 5-8 Murrey Math grid. Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Apr 29 2019
- All Day Holiday India – Election Day
- All Day Holiday Japan – Showa Day
- 04:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (Mar)
- 04:10 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
- 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
- 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR Business Climate (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR Services Sentiment (Apr)
- 06:15 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM)
- 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM)
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Apr)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- Tentative USD Dallas Fed PCE (Mar)
- 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 21:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
- 21:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)
- 21:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
Tues Apr 30 2019
- 01:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY)
- 01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
- 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (May)
- 02:00 RUB Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Mar)
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Mar)
- 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Mar)
- 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Apr)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY)
- 03:40 GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Apr)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Mar)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Current account (Feb)
- 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ)
- 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Mar)
- 06:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD RMPI (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 s.a. (MoM) (Feb)
- 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Apr)
- 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Apr)
- 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Apr)
- 11:00 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- 11:00 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Apr)
- 18:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)
- 18:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 18:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (Q1)
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 20:00 KRW Trade Balance (Apr)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI
Wed May 1 2019
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
Thur May 2 2019
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
Friday May 3, 2019
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Apr 29
- CAPITAL POWER CPX CHANGYOU.COM CYOU COOPER TIRE CTB DIAMOND OFFSHOR DO DORMAN PRODUCTS DORM INSPERITY INC NSP LOEWS CORP L MERCURY GENL CP MCY OCEANAGOLD CORP OGC ON SEMICON CORP ON PROVIDENT FINL PROV RESTAURANT BRND QSR SCORPIO BULKERS SALT SILICOM LIMITED SILC SOHU.COM LTD SOHU SPOTIFY TECH SA SPOT
After Market Close
- AK STEEL HLDG AKS ALPHABET INC-A GOOGL BROOKS AUTOMATN BRKS CDN NATL RY CO CNI CHEMED CORP CHE COGNEX CORP CGNX CONTL RESOURCES CLR CRANE CO CR ETHAN ALLEN INT ETH JOHN BEAN TECH JBT LEGGETT & PLATT LEG LOGITECH INTL LOGI MGM RESORTS INT MGM MKS INSTRUMENTS MKSI MOLINA HLTHCR MOH MURPHY USA INC MUSA NEUROCRINE BIOS NBIX OCEANEERING INT OII SANMINA CORP SANM TENET HEALTH THC TEXAS ROADHOUSE TXRH TRANSOCEAN LTD RIG WESTERN DIGITAL WDC YUM CHINA HLDGS YUMC
Tuesday Apr 30
- 1800FLOWERS.COM FLWS ALACER GOLD CP ASR ARCHROCK INC AROC BAKER HUGHES GE BHGE BLUE APRON HLDG APRN BP PLC BP BRINKER INTL EAT CHARTER COMM-A CHTR CNX RESOURCES CNX CONOCOPHILLIPS COP CORNING INC GLW CUMMINS INC CMI DIEBOLD NIXDORF DBD EMCOR GROUP INC EME ENCANA CORP ECA FIDELITY NAT IN FIS FIRST DATA CORP FDC FRESH DEL MONTE FDP GENERAL MOTORS GM GENL ELECTRIC GE GENOCEA BIOSCI GNCA HUNTSMAN CORP HUN INCYTE CORP INCY INGERSOLL RAND IR IRADIMED CORP IRMD KKR & CO INC KKR LILLY ELI & CO LLY LUMBER LIQUIDAT LL MASTERCARD INC MA MCDONALDS CORP MCD MERCK & CO INC MRK MERIDIAN BIOSCI VIVO OSHKOSH CORP OSK PACCAR INC PCAR PFIZER INC PFE PHILLIPS 66 PSX SANTANDER CNSMR SC SEAGATE TECH STX TEEKAY OFFSHORE TOO TENNANT CO TNC
- ACADIA HEALTHCR ACHC AKAMAI TECH AKAM AMGEN INC AMGN APPLE INC AAPL AXOS FINANCIAL AX BIG 5 SPORTING BGFV BLACKBAUD INC BLKB CHUBB LTD CB CONCHO RESOURCS CXO DENNY’S CORP DENN DEVON ENERGY DVN FIREEYE INC FEYE FLEX LTD FLEX GENWORTH FINL GNW GROUPON INC GRPN HORIZON TECHNOL HRZN LATTICE SEMICON LSCC LIBERTY OILFLD LBRT LYDALL INC LDL MAXIM INTG PDTS MXIM MICROSTRATEGY MSTR NABORS IND NBR NU SKIN ENTERP NUS ONEOK INC OKE PRGX GLOBAL INC PRGX RANGER EGY SVCS RNGR ROGERS CORP ROG SOLARIS OIL INF SOI TAUBMAN CENTERS TCO TWILIO INC-A TWLO USANA HLTH SCI USNA VERTEX PHARM VRTX VIPER ENERGY VNOM
Wednesday May 1
Thursday May 2
Friday May 3
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.