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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Blind Acceptance, Earnings and Herd Reflexability
The Week That Was:
Bloomberg this week ran a headline ‘Is Inflation Dead?’, for anyone studying herd mentality or socioeconomics this should be a flashing light. For anyone thinking this time it’s different, well take a walk around the block, alone and think.
It is worth repeating from last week, the risk off levitation in markets continued with S&P 500 still within one per cent of September’s record closing high, and the S&P 500 Total Return Index, which includes reinvested dividends recovering all the sell-off in the closing months of 2018. In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The CBOE Volatility Index fell to another fresh six-month low. There is NO Fear despite major nations in political chaos, including G-5 nations the US, France and the UK,
Economic reports for the most part continue to dissappoint, as said earlier the odd positive report is latched onto by the market. Be aware of the herd, the machines and the greed. Despite all the chaos we sit just over 2900 on the S&P as the so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. WTI plays around $64 despite waiver extensions and OPEC giving mixed signals again as Gasoline draws weigh causing over $4 Gasoline in some parts of America BEFORE Summer.
The Week Ahead
We start off the week with existing home sales for March, these numbers are important as existing home sales account for roughly 90% of all home sales. Health of the housing market gives us insight into economic activity. Existing home sales rose 11.8% m/m in February, which was the largest m/m gain since December 2015, was that a one off? The first read on first-quarter GDP is being released April 26, economists raised their growth estimates by 0.3 percentage points to a median 2.4% following a sharp jump in March retail sales and business inventories. Their median forecast was under 2% just several days ago and was at a low of 1% earlier in the quarter. We have interst rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. Japanese markets will also be closed for a string of holidays in late April.
Keep an eye on last’s week’s IPO after the dismal reversal of Lyft’s IPO. There were eight IPOs ahead of the Easter holiday weekend, the busiest week of the 2019 IPO market including tech unicorns Pinterest and Zoom. For May there already 12 new filings including Uber (UBER).
It is now over seven weeks since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house has said it needs more time. Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. 10 weeks of losses in the last 11 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Bank of America Corp,Morgan Stanley, Honeywell International, Union Pacific Corp. Kansas City Southern, Charles Schwab ; Netflix , IBM and Schlumberger. The week ahead heats up with 155 companies representing over $9 trillion in market capitalization, more than 35 percent of the total for the S&P 500 index. Names including Amazon, Facebook, Halliburton, Harley Davidson, Jet Blue, Twitter and Dow components such as United Technologies, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Proctor and Gamble, Verizon, Chevron and Exxon Mobil are up.
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Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- Lynas, One of Few Rare Earth Miners Outside of China in Play But There are Risks
- Sangamo and Pfizer Focus on Translating Genomic Medicines Using Gene Therapy
- Soliton Cellulite, Fat and Tattoo Removal Technology Spikes Price Volatilty
- U.S. Takes off 8 Oil Rigs With US Production Lower
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of +92 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Draws 1396k bbls as Production Pulls Back Off Record High
- U.S. Trade Deficit Falls To $49.4 Billion With OPEC Surplus and Lower China Imports
- T2 Biosystems Highlights Whole Blood innovations at Infectious Diseases Conference
- Melinta Therapeutics Presents at Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases Congress
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Schlumberger Earnings Reflect Lower Shale Activity But Expect Improved Oil Sentiment
- Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Fixed Income Trading Boost Earnings
- Netflix Lowers Earnings Guidance Seeing Higher Cash Burn
- Bank of America Consumer Lending and Cost Cutting Boost Profits
- Citigroup Earnings Per Share Pumped by Stock Buybacks as Equities Hit Revenue
- Goldman Sachs Revenues Falls in Trading and Investment Management
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX momentum slowed down with the downside holding the daily tenkan between +2/8 and +3/8 MurreyMath and the chikou.
On the weekly we see the breakdown retest from last year being retested.and at +1/8. All well overbought signals, caution if long with target now met from the 1.618% downside extenstion break retention.
10 Year Treasury Note
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The daily WTi closed inside the channel/flag after again at the Chikou (blue) afte holding the Tenkan (orange) the initial range, impulse needed to get through support didnt happen. The question is of degree in the 5 of the C.
WTI rests in the cloud on the weekly after spat the previous break retest from a year ago and back through the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support – watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas broke the 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math BUT hasn’t runaway. Topside nailed by Tenkan for now – has got the breakdown and 50 dma – so back we came.
Natural Gas closed under 100% also the 2017-18 low however with a lack of impulse. Upside reistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar got above the weekly Tenkan and Kijun but with no impulse. Range is 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math until proven otherwise. Elections ahead may get some volatility.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The kiwi is pushing up on the tenkan and daily cloud trading between the 6 & 7/8 Murrey Math lines, under the 50% Fib and was been in the Weekly Cloud for a few week’s now, it would need to break out from that to move from the sideways action.
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
The Loonie has been flirting with the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 and Chikou within the weekly pennant (white), still inconclusive outside of that range. The Kijun is trying to close through the Tenkan.
The Euro Weekly sits just over the recent lows again after testing the channel, Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply. Meanwhile same elements, watch EURGBP
The channel that is Brexit closed at the Tenkan as the EURUSD component hekd the channel, back testing the chikou and lower band. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
The dollar yen is still rebalancing after the rally that came after the $AAPL warning sell where risk off rushed to Yen reversed. Downside is tenkan (orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
The Mexican peso again strengthened this week after it had weakened with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the double bottom in the USDMZN at the Daily 0/8 Murrey Math after the cloud restrained weakness.
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
The $USDTRY continued to benefit from the Lire weakening despite intervention. this week, we are locked between +2/8 Murrey Math off the daily cloud with Tenkan energy and the downsode the Kijun, The 50 also supported. Nine weeks of losses in the last 10 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year.
Bitcoin volatilty is back testing the daily tenkan after flirting with 5-8 Murrey Math grid. Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Apr 22 2019
- All Day Holiday Australia – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday France – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday Hong Kong – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday United Kingdom – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday Switzerland – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday New Zealand – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday Spain – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday Italy – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday Germany – Easter Monday
- All Day Holiday South Africa – Easter Monday
- 04:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Mar)
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
- 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
- 23:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)
Tues Apr 23 2019
- 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
- 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
- 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Apr)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (Mar)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Apr)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Apr)
- 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
- 21:30 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
Wed Apr 24 2019
- 00:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index 97.4 97.4
- 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)
- 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
- 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment
- 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
- 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
- 04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Mar)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
- 10:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
- 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
- 19:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
- Tentative JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Thur Apr 18 2019
- All Day Holiday Australia – ANZAC DAY
- All Day Holiday New Zealand – ANZAC Day
- Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
- 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Apr)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
- 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Mar)
- 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Apr)
- 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
- 21:30 AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 21:30 AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 21:30 AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q1)
Friday April 26, 2019
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 04:00 CHF SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks
- 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
- 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers Total
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices
- 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD PCE Prices
- 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q1)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)
- 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Feb)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Apr 22
- AVX CORP AVX BANK OF HAWAII BOH BANK OF MARIN BMRC COMMNTY BK SYS CBU GRAINGER W W GWW HALLIBURTON CO HAL HNI CORP HNI INDEP BK MICH IBCP KIMBERLY CLARK KMB LENNOX INTL INC LII LINCOLN ELECTRC LECO LUBY’S INC LUB OLD NATL BCP ONB PEOPLE CORP PEO SIFY TECH LTD SIFY STEEL DYNAMICS STLD TCF FINL CORP TCF WASH TR BANCORP WASH
After Market Close
- BRIGHT SCHL-ADR BEDU BROWN & BROWN BRO CADENCE DESIGN CDNS CELANESE CORP CE FB FINANCIAL CP FBK FIRST DEFIANCE FDEF RAMBUS INC RMBS RANGE RESOURCES RRC RBB BANCORP RBB VERITEX HLDGS VBTX WESTERN ALLIANC WAL WHIRLPOOL CORP WHR ZIONS BANCORP ZION
Tuesday Apr 23
- ALLEGHENY TECH ATI ARCH COAL INC ARCH ASBURY AUTO GRP ABG BANC OF CA INC BANC CENTENE CORP CNC CHEROKEE INC CHKE CIT GROUP CIT COCA COLA CO KO FIFTH THIRD BK FITB FNB CORP FNB FRANKLIN ELEC FELE GRAPHIC PKG HLD GPK HARLEY-DAVIDSON HOG HASBRO INC HAS IRIDIUM COMMUN IRDM JETBLUE AIRWAYS JBLU LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT MGIC INVSTMT CP MTG NEXTERA ENERGY NEE NUCOR CORP NUE POLARIS INDUS PII PROCTER & GAMBL PG PULTE GROUP ONC PHM QUEST DIAGNOSTC DGX SHERWIN WILLIAM SHW STATE ST CORP STT TECK RESOURCES TECK TRANSUNION TRU TWITTER INC TWTR UTD TECHS CORP UTX VERIZON COMM VZ WATERS CORP WAT WATSCO INC WSO
- ACCURAY INC ARAY CARLISLE COS IN CSL CDN PAC RLWY CP EBAY INC EBAY EDWARDS LIFESCI EW FIRSTENERGY CP FE IROBOT CORP IRBT K12 INC LRN KAISER ALUMINUM KALU MERIT MEDICAL MMSI MERITAGE HOMES MTH NAVIENT CORP NAVI NORTHWESTERN CP NWE ROBT HALF INTL RHI ROCKY BRANDS RCKY SIX FLAGS ENTMT SIX SNAP INC SNAP STRYKER CORP SYK TD AMERITRADE AMTD TERADYNE INC TER TEXAS INSTRS TXN TOTAL SYS SVC TSS TRUSTMARK CP TRMK UTD CMNTY BK/GA UCBI VALMONT INDS VMI
Wednesday Apr 24
- AIR PRODS & CHE APD ANTHEM INC ANTM AT&T INC T AVERY DENNISON AVY BANKUNITED INC BKU BIOGEN INC BIIB BOEING CO BA BOK FINL CORP BOKF BOSTON SCIENTIF BSX BRINKS CO THE BCO CATERPILLAR INC CAT CENOVUS ENERGY CVE DASSAULT SY-ADR DASTY DOMINOS PIZZA DPZ DTE ENERGY CO DTE EVERCORE INC EVR FIRST BNCRP P R FBP FLIR SYSTEMS FLIR GENL DYNAMICS GD GENTEX CORP GNTX INTEGRA LIFESCI IART KNIGHT-SWIFT TR KNX LITHIA MOTORS LAD NASDAQ INC NDAQ NORFOLK SOUTHRN NSC NORTHROP GRUMMN NOC NOVARTIS AG-ADR NVS OWENS CORNING OC SAP SE SAP SILICON LAB INC SLAB SIRIUS XM HLDGS SIRI STANLEY B&D INC SWK STMICROELECTRON STM TELEDYNE TECH TDY TUPPERWARE BRND TUP UNION BANKSHARS UBSH UTD MICROELECTR UMC
- ALIGN TECH INC ALGN ASPEN TECH INC AZPN BOSTON BEER INC SAM CHIPOTLE MEXICN CMG CHURCHILL DOWNS CHDN CINCINNATI FINL CINF CITRIX SYS INC CTXS CONMED CORP CNMD CORE LABS NV CLB CORELOGIC INC CLGX F5 NETWORKS INC FFIV FACEBOOK INC-A FB FORTUNE BRD H&S FBHS LAM RESEARCH LRCX MICROSOFT CORP MSFT NETGEAR INC NTGR O REILLY AUTO ORLY OIL STATES INTL OIS ORIGIN BANCORP OBNK PAYPAL HOLDINGS PYPL QEP RESOURCES QEP RAYMOND JAS FIN RJF SERVICE CORP IN SCI STERLING BANCP STL TESLA INC TSLA VARIAN MEDICAL VAR VISA INC-A V WASTE CONNECTN WCN XILINX INC XLNX
Thursday Apr 25
- 3M CO MMM ABBVIE INC ABBV ALEXION PHARMA ALXN ALKERMES INC ALKS ALLIANCEBERNSTN AB ALTRIA GROUP MO AMER ELEC PWR AEP BARCLAY PLC-ADR BCS BAXTER INTL BAX BRISTOL-MYERS BMY BRUNSWICK CORP BC CELESTICA INC CLS CLEAR CHANL OUT CCO CLEVELAND-CLIFF CLF CMS ENERGY CMS COMCAST CORP A CMCSA D R HORTON INC DHI EQT CORP EQT FREEPT MC COP-B FCX HERSHEY CO/THE HSY HESS CORP HES INTL PAPER IP IRON MOUNTAIN IRM NEW GOLD INC NGD NEWMONT GOLDCRP NEM NOKIA CP-ADR A NOK NOMURA HLDG-ADR NMR PATTERSON-UTI PTEN PENSKE AUTO GRP PAG RAYTHEON CO RTN ROCKWELL AUTOMT ROK SHUTTERSTOCK SSTK SOUTHWEST AIR LUV STEVEN MADDEN SHOO TRACTOR SUPPLY TSCO UBS GROUP AG UBS UTD PARCEL SRVC UPS VALERO ENERGY VLO WASTE MGMT-NEW WM WEC ENERGY GRP WEC WEST BANCORP WTBA XCEL ENERGY INC XEL XEROX CORP XRX
- AFLAC INC AFL After Market Close AGNICO EAGLE AEM ALASKA AIR GRP ALK AMAZON.COM INC AMZN BIOMARIN PHARMA BMRN BOYD GAMING CP BYD BRIGGS & STRATT BGG CAPITAL ONE FIN COF CERNER CORP CERN CUBESMART CUBE CYPRESS SEMICON CY DISCOVER FIN SV DFS FORD MOTOR CO F GRUBHUB INC GRUB IDEX CORP IEX ILLUMINA INC ILMN INTEL CORP INTC JUNIPER NETWRKS JNPR KNOLL INC KNL LOGMEIN INC LOGM MATTEL INC MAT MOHAWK INDS INC MHK NATL OILWELL VR NOV POWER INTGRATIO POWI SHUTTERFLY INC SFLY SKYWEST INC SKYW SOUTHWESTRN ENE SWN STARBUCKS CORP SBUX T-MOBILE US INC TMUS UNIVL HLTH SVCS UHS VERISIGN INC VRSN VERMILION EGY VET VIAD CORP VVI
Friday Apr 26
- AB ELECTROLUX ELUXY AMER AIRLINES AAL ARCHER DANIELS ADM ASTRAZENECA PLC AZN AUTONATION INC AN CABOT OIL & GAS COG CHEVRON CORP CVX DAIMLER AG DDAIF DEUTSCHE BK AG DB EXXON MOBIL CRP XOM GOODYEAR TIRE GT HUSKY ENERGY HSE IMPERIAL OIL LT IMO INTERPUBLIC GRP IPG LEAR CORPORATN LEA LENDINGTREE INC TREE LYONDELLBASEL-A LYB MONOTYPE IMAGNG TYPE PIPER JAFFRAY PJC ROYAL BK SC-ADR RBS SANOFI-AVENTIS SNY SONY CORP ADR SNE WEYERHAEUSER CO WY
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.