Natural Gas Storage Draws -99 Bcf With Bitter Cold

Another large natural gas draw expected following another volatile Natural Gas Futures expiration. Volatility continues with weather model conflicts.

Another large natural gas draw expected following another volatile Natural Gas Futures expiration. Volatility continues with weather model conflicts.

Last week’s draw was -288 Bcf following the previous fortnight’s record 359 Bcf. With weather volatility comes basis market natural gas volaltilty especially in the North East. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cold. We saw the Feb/March spread widen to record levels and Feb take out those 3.62 highs on expiration. From there we have had weather models conflicting on cold duration.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/25/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday February 1 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  -99 Bcf  Prior  -288 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -102 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -88 to – 119 Bcf
  • EIA swap: – 100 to -101 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -288 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx

Jan 16 – Latest January demand estimate down to 974 national gas-weighted HDDs….still colder than normal, but on the lower end of the cold 2000s cases.

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: – 87 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: – 108 Bcf

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -101
  • DJ Survey -102
  • Reuters Survey -104
  • Platts Survey -103

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -95
  • Genscape -109
  • Kidduff Report -110
  • Shura Li – Pira -104
  • Peter Marrin – SNL –
  • Norse -88
  • Point Logic -91
  • Robry825 -119
  • Schneider Electric -91
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -101
  • Andy Wiessman -93

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -116
  • Macquarie Bank – 95
  • Raymond James – 102
  • TFS -100

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

 

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Visit : https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

– Natgasflow into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. LNG exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That’s a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

– Natgas feed to Sabine Pass LNG facility for Tue Jan 16 was 3.19 Bcf.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,296 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2815
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2782 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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