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Bangkok, Hong Kong and Taipai are currently the cities most at risk from a global spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in a study based on the number of air travelers predicted to arrive there from the worst affected cities in mainland China.

Coronavirus Highest Risk Cities

The report comes from leading experts of population mapping at the University of Southampton in the UK. They have identified cities and provinces within mainland China, and cities and countries worldwide, which are at high-risk from the spread of the virus a report by the University’s WorldPop team has found.

Highest Risk to Coronavirus International Cities

WorldPop at the University of Southampton conducted this research in collaboration with the University of Toronto, St Michael’s Hospital Toronto, disease surveillance organization Bluedot in Toronto and the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

Andrew Tatem, Director of WorldPop and professor within Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Southampton, says:

“It’s vital that we understand patterns of population movement, both within China and globally, in order to assess how this new virus might spread – domestically and internationally. By mapping these trends and identifying high-risk areas, we can help inform public health interventions, such as screenings and healthcare preparedness.”

The team at WorldPop used anonymized mobile phone and IP address data (2013-15)1, along with international air travel data (2018) to understand typical patterns of movement of people within China, and worldwide, during the annual 40-day Lunar New Year celebrations (including the seven day public holiday from January 24 to 30).

They then identified 18 Chinese cities (including Wuhan) at high-risk from the new coronavirus and established the volume of air passengers likely to be traveling from these cities to global destinations (over a three month period). The team was then able to rank the top 30 most at-risk countries and cities around the world.

The researchers do acknowledge that their analysis is based on ‘non-outbreak’ travel patterns, but highlight that a high proportion of people traveled with symptoms at an early stage of the outbreak, before restrictions were put in place. Due to the late discovery of the virus ravel cordons are likely to have only coincided with the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan for the holiday period. According to Wuhan authorities, it is likely more than five million people had already left the city.

Lead report author Dr. Shengjie Lai of the University of Southampton comments:

“The spread of the new coronavirus is a fast moving situation and we are closely monitoring the epidemic in order to provide further up-to-date analysis on the likely spread, including the effectiveness of the transport lockdown in Chinese cities and transmission by people returning from the Lunar New Year holiday, which has been extended to February 2.”

Highest Risk to Coronavirus International Countries

The most ‘at-risk’ countries or regions worldwide are Thailand (1), Japan (2) and Hong Kong (3). USA is placed 6th on the list, Australia 10th and the UK 17th.

Source: Preliminary risk analysis of 2019 novel coronavirus spread within and beyond China

From TradersCommunity Research

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