Earnings Reports

Google Ad

Chinese video streaming company iQiyi, known as China's Netflix  reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings Thursday after the close seeing the stock gain 22%. Losses were again huge, over US$500 million for the quarter, but revenue soared 55% exciting investors.

IQIYI

iQiyi went public in March raising $2.375 billion, the biggest IPO since Snap's $3.4 billion last year.

Baidu $BIDU is the majority owner.

IQIYI Inc NASDAQ: IQ Reported Earnings After Close Thursday

$(0.70) Missed $(0.71) EPS Exp as Revenue of $1.0 B BEAT $943.5 Billion Revenue Forecast

Earnings

iQIYI (IQ) reported fourth-quarter 2018 earnings with losses over 3.5 billion yuan ($506 million) for the fourth quarter and 9.4 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) for the year.  This is the risk as outlined below, there aren't any guarantees that losses will continue, like Netflix, however while IQ sees revenue like what it produced this quarter investors are hopeful. Revenue was 7 billion yuan ($1.0 billion), an increase of 55% year over year. This easily exceeded management's guidance for revenue of 6.48 billion yuan ($943.5 million at the time of the forecast) and analysts' consensus estimates of $972 million

  • At the end of the fourth quarter, iQiyi had 87.4 million subscribers, of which over 98% were paying members.

 

IQIYI Inc NASDAQ: IQ

Market Reaction $27.70 USD +$4.94 (+21.70%) Close: Feb 22, 2019

iQiyi financial performance trend Q4 2018

Highlights

  • Membership-services revenue soared 76% year over year, and advertising revenue grew 9% compared to the prior-year quarter.
  • iQiyi has both ad-supported and paid subscriptions for its growing member base. Revenue from content distribution showed the most robust growth, expanding 137% year over year to 522 million yuan ($75.9 million) on the strength of the company's premium-content titles.
  • The "other" revenue segment, which includes iQiyi's ancillary businesses such as content merchandising and online games based on its original programs, topped 2.9 billion yuan ($418 million), up 107% year over year.
  • iQiyi reported that its subscriber numbers grew to 87.4 million during the quarter, up 72% year over year, and that 98.5% of subscribers are paying members, while the remainder are on free trials.

On the company's earnings conference call, Yu Gong, iQiyi's Founder, Director, and CEO, attributed the impressive growth to iQiyi's premium content that he said was "clearly driving subscribers' conversion and stickiness." Premium content has been a strong draw for iQiyi, and a number of the company's hit shows have created considerable buzz across China.

 

 

iQiyi has penetration, last year's street dance competition series Hot-Blood Dance Crew attracted over 1.8 billion views and generated 650 million yuan ($95 million), breaking records for online ad revenue, the number of sponsors, and quickest ad sellout for an online variety show.

Strategic Partnerships 

iQiyi has strategic partnerships with some of China's most well-known companies. Last year, the company signed a deal with e-commerce provider JD.com that offers the premium benefits from both platforms to the subscribers of either for a period of one year.

Gong said the streaming provider also deepened its relationship with China Mobil, introducing combined memberships and mobile video data packages that include the state-owned company's video-streaming service MIGU. The app provides a wide variety of digital content aimed at Chinese teens, including anime, comics, video games, and music. The platform is home to more than 17 million songs, 4.3 million videos, 1,200-plus live-streaming events, 30,000 games, and 470,000 anime titles.

The company expanded its relationship with online travel company Ctrip, which enables iQiyi premium members to use a number of priority travel services. These include access to VIP airport lounges and priority access to discounted hotel bookings, vehicle reservations, the purchasing of train tickets, and free entry to a number of sightseeing attractions. Additionally, Ctrip Prime members benefit from an eight-month VIP membership with iQiyi.

Each of these partnerships facilitates the cross-selling of services, helping to fuel iQiyi's growing subscriber numbers.

Outlook

iQiyi is forecasting total revenue in a range of 6.80 billion yuan ($989.6 billion) and 7.10 billion yuan ($1.0 billion), which would represent growth of between 40% and 46% in its seasonally slower first quarter. This projection topped analyst expectations for revenue of about $976 million.

IQIYI  Q3 Earnings Recap

Missed Exp $(0.41) EPS as Revenue of $1.0 Bill Missed $1.01 Billion Revenue Forecast

Earnings

iQIYI (IQ) reported third-quarter 2018 earnings with total revenues of RMB6.9 billion (US$1.0 billion), a 48% increase from the same period in 2017. Operating loss was RMB2.6 billion (US$377.3 million) and operating loss margin was 37%, compared to operating loss of RMB1.1 billion and operating loss margin of 23% in the same period in 2017. The consensus estimate for third-quarter revenues at $1.01 billion for loss of 41 cents.

$IQ in Q2 reported a loss of 45 cents per share which was less than the consensus estimate of a loss of $2.30. In Q2 revenues were $933 million, under the consensus estimate of $959 million. Total revenues were up 51% from the year-ago quarter to RMB 6.2 billion. 

IQIYI Inc NASDAQ: IQ

Market Reaction After hours $19.31 −2.89 (-13.02%)

Highlights

Dr. Yu Gong, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of iQIYI. said "Membership services performed particularly well and became the biggest revenue contributor for the Company. While we faced some margin pressure during the quarter due to higher investment in content, we saw this as necessary and within our expectations as we are going through a transition period toward building an optimized and healthier content ecosystem which will position us well for the future."

  • Net loss attributable to iQIYI was RMB3.1 billion (US$457.3 million), compared to RMB1.1 billion in the same period in 2017.
  • Diluted net loss attributable to iQIYI per ADS was RMB4.34(US$0.63
  • The number of total subscribing members was 80.7 million as of September 30, 2018, over 98% of whom were paying subscribing members. This compares to 42.7 million of total subscribing members as of September 30, 2017, up 89% year over year.

In July iQiyi released new season of the hit show The Rap of China and the 70 episode drama series Story of Yanxi Palace which was reported as  “the most watched online drama in China for 39 consecutive days this summer. It was estimated to have beeng streamed an average of 300 million times a day, on its peak day receiving a record breaking more than 700 million views.”

The company also licensed a number of its original dramas such as With You, Summer's Desire, My Huckleberry Friends, and the 200 Million Years Old Classmate to several TV stations across China.

Two tiers of accessibility, VIP members watched all episodes at once, with non-VIP’s a few episodes per week has expanded the subscriber base.

iQIYI has a joint membership program with JD.com which is expected to add subscribers. 

iQiy IPO Recap

The IPO was larger than PagSeguro Digital's $PAGS $2.27 billion IPO in January and the much anticipated Dropbox $DBX IPO.

iQiyi $IQ raised $2.25 billion late Wednesday with the initial public offering priced nearly 125 million shares at $18 at the midpoint of the expected range of 17 to 19 a share.

Shares in iQiyi Inc $IQ opened at $18.20, slightly ahead of the $18 initial public offering price. By mid afternoon at at 2:44 PM EDT the price had fallen to $16.88 USD -1.12 -6.22%

IQ Day One

 The IPO

  • $IQ plans to offer 125 million American depository shares at a price range of 17 to 19.
  • The company will list under the symbol $IQ on the NASDAQ
  • Chinese search leader Baidu (BIDU) is the majority owner of iQiyi,
  • The company has been referred to as the Netflix (NFLX) of China.
  • With 50 million subscribers, iQiyi has nearly 28% market share in China,
  • Rivals Alibaba $BABA and Tencent $CEHY$ have their own streaming services 

The previous biggest deal was Brazilian fintech PagSequro Digital Ltd.’s $PAGS $2.27 billion deal in January.$IQ would be the highest-value IPO since Snapchat parent Snap Inc. $SNAP went public last March in a $3.4 billion deal.

Underwriters

Goldman Sachs (Asia), Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, China Renaissance, Citigroup and UBS have an option to sell an additional 18.75 million shares.

About iQiyi

iQiyi $IQ was created in 2010, and has since grown to be the largest internet video streaming service in China , measured by monthly average users (MAUs) in 2017, according to Chinese third-party research firm iResearch per their prospectus.

The company had 60.1 million subscribing members as of Feb. 28, more than 98% of which were paying subscribers. By comparison, Netflix Inc. $NFLX had roughly 53 million paying subscribers in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, and 58 million overseas subscribers.

For the three months ending with December, iQiyi had average mobile MAUs of 421.3 million and about 126 million average mobile DAUs (daily average users). In December alone, members watched 9.2 billion hours of video on the platform and spent an average of 1.7 hours a day on its mobile apps.

The company makes its money from subscription fees, advertising on the platform and content distribution. Proceeds of the IPO are to be used to expand content offerings and strengthen technologies and for working capital and other general corporate purposes. But the IPO is also intended as a way to get the brand name better known and attract and retain employees by offering them equity awards, according to the prospectus.

iQiyi’s original content is popular in China, accounting for six of the top 10 original internet drama series in the country in 2017, according to iResearch. “The Lost Tomb,” a high-budget drama series released in 2015, drew more than 100 million video views in the first 24 hours of release, and has generated more than 4 billion views in total.

$IQ also produces internet variety shows, including “The Rap of China,” an “X Factor”–style rap reality show and competition, which has generated more than 3 billion video shows.

Video is the leading online entertainment format in China, accounting for more than 80% of the time spent online, and the number is expected to grow as more consumers come online. China’s internet video users have grown to 545 million in 2016 from 372 million in 2012, and that number is expected to grow to 766 million by 2022, according to the prospectus.

The Risks of Investing in IQ

Baidu will remain in control

The company has a dual-share-class structure, and Baidu $BIDU will own all of the company’s higher-voting-rights Class B shares once the offer is completed.  Meaning despite going public $BIDU will remain$IQ’s controlling shareholder, with more than 93% of voting rights.

Analysts so far see this as a positive, as Baidu is one of China’s better-known names and is a key technological partner for iQiyi.

However, “Baidu’s voting control may cause transactions to occur that might not be beneficial to you as a holder of ADSs and may prevent transactions that could have been beneficial to you,” the company cautions in its prospectus.

 iQiyi has an unusual risky corporate structure

Chinese companies listings outside of China favor variable-interest entity, or VIE as a structure created in the 1990s as a workaround for Chinese companies not allowed to have direct foreign ownership. This is what $IQ is.

Under the VIE structure, the Chinese company creates two entities, one in China that holds the permits and licenses needed to do business there and the other an offshore entity, in this case in the Cayman Islands, in which foreign investors can buy shares. The Chinese entity, which is usually owned by top executives, pays fees and royalties to the offshore company in contractual arrangements.

The biggest example of a VIE is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $BABA in which the Chinese entity is wholly owned by its founder and chairman, Jack Ma. The risk with this set-up is that foreign investors don’t actually own stock in the company, and local management or even the Chinese government could decide or force a split with the listed company, leaving U.S. investors empty. Not out of the realms of possibilities with the U.S.. slapping $60 billion worth of tariffs on China. 

The iQiyi prospectus acknowledges that risk: “If the PRC (People’s Republic of China) government finds that the agreements that establish the structure for operating certain of our operations in China do not comply with PRC regulations relating to the relevant industries, or if these regulations or the interpretation of existing regulations change in the future, we could be subject to severe penalties or be forced to relinquish our interests in those operations.” '

iQiyi has NEVER made a profit

While iQiyi is growing revenue fast, up to $2.67 billion in 2017, or 55%in a year. It has the cash burn problem that $NFLX has. $IQ lost $574 million last year, up 22% from the prior year.

The prospectus projects this burn to go on for a while yet. $IQ's cost of revenue was $2.67 billion in 2017, the same as its revenue. Content costs rose 67% to $1.94 billion, and bandwidth cost rose 17% to $336 million.

The company is expecting cost of revenue to continue to grow and to exceed revenue growth at least in the near term. “

We face significant competition in China, primarily from Tencent Video and Youku Tudou,” according to the prospectus.

“We compete for users, usage time and advertising customers. Some of our competitors have a longer operating history and significantly greater financial resources than we do. If any of our competitors achieves greater market acceptance than we do or is able to offer more attractive video content, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected.”

The company does not intend to pay a dividend in the near future, so shareholders will rely entirely on the ADS appreciating in price.

The Burn Rate means iQiyi Will Need More Funding SOON

“Producing high-quality original content is costly and time-consuming and it will typically take a long period of time to realize returns on investment, if at all,” said the prospectus.

Like Netflix, iQiyi relies heavily on algorithms, artificial intelligence and user data to select third-party content and has built a substantial library.

The huge positive here is Baidu providing it technology, infrastructure and financial help. BUT the prospectus states, “we have no experience operating as a stand-alone public company. After this offering, we will face enhanced administrative and compliance requirements, which may result in substantial costs.”

Be prepared and be sure this is the risk you want to take on.

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (1 replies).