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Stocks and the Nasdaq 100 Index crashed on Friday, the fall would have been worse if high flyer Amazon $AMZN wasn't up on the day after another blow out earnings report. Was this a minor bump from a 35% rise or internet bubble redux circa 2018?  

NDX 240 2 3 18

Where did the bulk of people get in? What triggered the crash? Was it the fact we were already sliding into the jobs report and it signaled more high interest rates? Was it the dow components Chevron, Exxon and Apple who all sold off after earnings?

All factors no doubt but technically we can see how overbought we were from our charts and as confirmed from our short entry and +3/8 Murrey Math on our S&P 500 240 chart last week and confirmed across multiple time frames and indices, namely the Dow and Nasdaq 100. Note also in our chart above we have since recalculated down to 7/8 - a full 4/8 recalc.

Throw in the record low cash levels, low put call and vix and the herd mentaility of the only way is up. Technically the time was ripe, our crowd behavior measures had been flashing red for months. This impulsive was inevitable, but when? 

Nasdaq 100 Futures Settles Friday

Nasdaq Futures Close 2 2 2018

Daily

Lets keep it simple, use the Murrey math grids and ichimoku indices for support and pattern breaks and targets. Its early days this may be like 2008, but probably not, use your guidelines. Was that a 3 or 5 wave at the peak? The impulse confirms the topping, but what degree? Crucial is managing the herd and the algorithim probabilities. We watch for three waves for degree and failure. For those that shorted at entry, use your Murrey math levels and Fibonacci retraces. 

NDX D 2 3 18

Weekly

Lets keep it simple, use the Murrey math grids and ichimoku indices for support and pattern breaks and targets. Its early days this may be like 2008, but probably not, use your guidelines. Was that a 3 or 5 wave at the peak? The impulse confirms the topping, but what degree? Crucial is managing the herd and the algorithim probabilities. We watch for three waves for degree and failure. For those that shorted at entry, use your Murrey math levels and Fibonacci retraces. 

NDX W 2 3 18

 

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