Oil & Energy

Google Ad

The EIA reported a lower than expected build of +24 Bcf in natural gas storage this week. Excitment comes from pipeline repairs and heat and storms, but only in the vernacular it seems. June was the 3rd warmest in history.


us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 7/5/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday July 12 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +24 Bcf  Prior  +46 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +33 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +23 to +44 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +25 to +27 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +46 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

 Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +32 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +30 Bcf

“After dropping a bit last week, modeled estimates for power burn jumped to year-to-date highs across Texas, the Southeast and the Midwest. Smaller dips from onshore production in the Southeast and Texas cell regions provided further downward pressure to this week’s estimate. The warmer-than-normal July has halted a lot of potential upside to stock levels, especially in light of last week’s surprisingly low 46-Bcf build. This week’s injection would bring July’s tally so far to 119 Bcf, 40 Bcf lower than the five-year average over the same period.”    - Platts Analytics

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +36
  • DJ Survey +36
  • Reuters Survey +36
  • Platts Survey +35

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +44
  • Macquarie +29
  • Raymond James +36
  • TFS +33

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +27
  • Jacob Meisel +
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +23
  • Gabe Harris +31
  • Kidduff Report +36
  • Shura Li - Pira +29
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +39
  • Andrea Paltry +
  • Point Logic +29
  • RonH +42
  • Schneider Electric +36
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +42
  • Trade Mechanics +35
  • Andy Wiessman +41

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

    

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

 

Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows and Receipts

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

 

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,249 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2959
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2784

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (1 replies).