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Natural gas futures responded higher after EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +46 Bcf this week. Excitment comes from pipeline repairs and heat and storms, but only in the vernacular it seems. June was the third warmest in history.


us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 7/5/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday July 12 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +46 Bcf  Prior  +51 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +55 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +49 to +62 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +54 to +55 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +51 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +61 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +57 Bcf

  “Cooler weather across the more populated cell regions lowered US power burn demand by 1.1 Bcf/d, which motivated the increase in the build week on week. The Northeast averaged 3 degrees Fahrenheit colder on a population-weighted basis, dropping regional power burn estimates by 1.7 Bcf/d. The Southeast and Midwest saw comparable cooling, but with a corresponding drop of only 0.5 Bcf/d each.” - Platts Analytics

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +59
  • DJ Survey +57
  • Reuters Survey +57
  • Platts Survey +61

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +60
  • Macquarie +55
  • Raymond James +56
  • TFS +58

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +55
  • Jacob Meisel +61
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +52
  • Gabe Harris +51
  • Kidduff Report +51
  • Shura Li - Pira +53
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +53
  • Point Logic +60
  • RonH +60
  • Schneider Electric +56
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +49
  • Trade Mechanics +62
  • Andy Wiessman +59

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

      

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

 

Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows and Receipts

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,203 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2928
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2722

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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