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Natural gas futures had another listless week after EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +91 Bcf last week.  Excitment comes from pipeline repairs and heat and storms, but only in the vernacular it seems.

us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 6/14/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday June 21 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +66 Bcf*  Prior  +91 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +70 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +60 to +77 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +64 to +66 @ CT 15.13

*R=Revised. The reported revision caused the stocks for June 15, 2018, to change from 2,004 Bcf to 2,008 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending June 08 and June 15 changed from 91 Bcf to 95 Bcf.

Last Week's Report +96 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999


 Bentek Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +74 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +76 Bcf

“Week over week, stronger power burns in the Northeast and south-central regions dampened the injection, despite some smaller gains in production. Last week, the south-central region saw the most significant change in sample activity week over week, dropping 12 Bcf to an injection of just 3.9 Bcf. While there was a 2.7-Bcf decrease in the depleted fields sample, the majority of the change came from the salt dome facilities, which flipped from a net-injection of 8.1 Bcf to a net withdrawal of 1.8 Bcf. The majority of last week’s miss came from the south-central, which we underestimated by 8 Bcf. The East region saw the second largest change in sample activity, dropping from an injection of 22.4 to 18.2 Bcf, spread across all the fields. - Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey +70
  • DJ Survey +72
  • Reuters Survey +71
  • Platts Survey +74

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +71
  • Macquarie +64
  • Raymond James +74
  • TFS +73


  • AgWxMan +67
  • Gabe Harris +65
  • Shane Bolling +72
  • Genscape +60
  • Gabe Harris +65
  • Kidduff Report +77
  • Shura Li - Pira +72
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +
  • NG Junkie +73
  • Norse +74
  • Andrea Paltry +71
  • Point Logic +71
  • RonH +77
  • Schneider Electric +68
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +75
  • Trade Mechanics +68
  • Andy Wiessman +73

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly






RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory for the week


Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999





Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,004 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2761
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2503

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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