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Natural gas futures spat over $3.00 last week on pipeline fractures but quickly fell back.EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +91 Bcf this week.  Pipeline explosions join heat and storms are in the vernacular now.


us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 6/14/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday June 21 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +91 Bcf  Prior  +96 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +85 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +81 to +91 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +84 to +85 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +96 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

 Bentek Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +89 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +83 Bcf

Warmer weather across the US continues to push up power burn and depress residential and commercial demand, leading to a 13-Bcf weaker injection week over week. After last week’s surprisingly big injection, an 83 Bcf injection is right in line with the five-year average and a full 20 Bcf above the same period last year. - Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +83
  • DJ Survey +83
  • Reuters Survey +85
  • Platts Survey +85

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +82
  • Macquarie +85
  • Raymond James +87
  • TFS +86

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Gabe Harris +81
  • Genscape +85
  • Kidduff Report +91
  • Shura Li - Pira +85
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +85
  • Point Logic +87
  • Robry825 +
  • Schneider Electric +81
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +85
  • Trade Mechanics +84
  • Andy Wiessman +84

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

 

 

     

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory for the week

   

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

 

 

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,913 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2698
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2420

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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