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Natural gas futures failed at a $3.00 stop run over Memorial Day, will we retest on the report? The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +96 Bcf this week.  Heat and storms are in the vernacular now.


us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 5/31/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday May 24 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +96 Bcf  Prior  +91 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +101 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +98 to +107 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +100 to +101 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +91 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of TradersNG COT 5 14 18

 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +101 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +104 Bcf

 “After being hampered by maintenance events last week Northeast production bounced back while power burn and residential and commercial demand dipped, pointing to a 10 Bcf larger build week-overweek. The most recent CellCast expects May to add 412 Bcf to US inventories, only 4 Bcf above the five-year average. A second triple-digit injection puts us on track to meet and likely exceed that target by as much as 20 or 30 Bcf, providing some breathing room after this year’s extended withdrawal season has stoked concerns regarding a record low carry-out,” Bentek says. “As a result, inventories would stand at 1,733 Bcf, and the deficits to both last year and the five-year average stock level would shrink to 781 and 492 Bcf respectively.” - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +102
  • DJ Survey +101
  • Reuters Survey +102
  • Platts Survey +101

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +98
  • Macquarie +101
  • Raymond James +103
  • TFS +102

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +103
  • Gabe Harris +98
  • Genscape +107
  • Kidduff Report +101
  • Shura Li - Pira +104
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +102
  • Norse +107
  • Andrea Paltry +104
  • Point Logic +102
  • Robry825 +
  • Schneider Electric +102
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +101
  • Trade Mechanics 99
  • Andy Wiessman +103

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

     

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory for week 20 of 2018

 

 

 

  

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,629 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2433
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2128

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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