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Crude oil futures plummeted almost $3 by Friday morning ahead of the Memorial Weekend. This follows a bearish EIA Inventory report showing huge builds, soaring gasoline prices with a President who called out OPEC and Russia and Saudi Arabia talking increased production. Why was this a surprise?

CL 5 25 Daily

Note the muave line on the daily - that is the last break up line, we watch for reaction there to determine where we are in the count.

The answer simply on the surprise is because of the record longs in many of the speculative categories, in speculation people talk their book, bullish chatter is rampant with $100 oil price targets. One of the key components of Knovawave is crowd behavior, that is where Elliotts work comes in and where the cold hold math of Gann and Murrey come in. So we can look at the cold numbers and douse our own emotions.

In the background we has a slew of fundamentals ignored as mentioned above, not to forget US production was unchanged at record highs this past week and exports though near record highs fell off. In a week that saw 4 year highs, over $80 on Brent which per our months ago chart was OPEC target. So why was that a surprise, the comments in the past few days? smart money had been taking money off the table heading into a long weekend leaving the vulnerable fast money speculator even more vulnerable,

Where to from here?

Keep an eye on the bigger picture, for extremes or jsut suitable targets We look at the weekly and daily Fibonacci and Ichimoku levels. We also look at the Murrey Math levels, +3/8 on weekly or daily gave an indication of ust how ramped we were. With oil stay flexaible and watch your ABC's. Will update the thread with shorter time frames and watch for changing geopolitical and economic cues, more importantly how the herd reacts. Note the muave line on the daily - that is the last break up line, we watch for reaction there to determine where we are in the count. (above chart)

CL 5 25 Weekly

 Murrey Math Charts Daily +2/8 and Weekly +3/8

CL 5 25 Daily MM

CL 5 25 Weekly MM

Criterion U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast ‏@Criterionrsch

 

WTI and Brent Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

CL COT 5 14 18 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 

   

RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

 US Oil Exports 

 

US consumers spent $1.1895 billion per day for gasoline last week. That is $211.60 million more dollars per day than same week last year. 

US consumers bought 406.94 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. 

US Oil Field Production, Unchanged At Record High

 US Oil Refinery Utilization

NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

Further Crude Oil Analysis Criterion Research

Source: TradersCommunity Research

Trade Smart

KnovaWave @knovawave

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