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The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +106 Bcf last week with futures continuing to listlessly drift around 2.80 again. Shoulder month is upon us with heat predictions starting to swirl and builds ahead.

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Another injection followed 9 weeks of draws which has seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cooling season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 5/10/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday May 17 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +106 Bcf  Prior  +89 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +103 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +98 to +110 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +104 to +105 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +89 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of TradersNG COT 5 14 18

 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +105 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +104 Bcf

Despite some slowdown in production and an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of powerburn, this week’s estimate was nudged up by a 4.4 Bcf/d drop in res-comm demand. Demand in the Southeast Cell Region increased 1.2 Bcf week-over-week, with a 1.8 Bcf increase in powerburn that was mitigated by smaller drops in res-comm and LNG feedgas - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +103
  • DJ Survey +103
  • Reuters Survey +105
  • Platts Survey +104

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +
  • Eclipse +
  • Macquarie +106
  • Raymond James +103
  • TFS +103

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +106
  • Gabe Harris +100
  • Genscape +110
  • Kidduff Report +109
  • Shura Li - Pira +100
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +102
  • Norse +100
  • Andrea Paltry +104
  • Point Logic +102
  • Robry825 +104
  • Schneider Electric +99
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +102
  • Trade Mechanics +98
  • Andy Wiessman +105

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

     

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory for week 18 of 2018

 

 

 

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,432 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2295
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1952

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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