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The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of -19 Bcf this week with futures continuing to listlessly drift sideways.  With cold still hanging around up East it's around 2 weeks in the heating season.

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The last 6 week's draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season, but does it matter? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 4/5/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday April 12 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -  9 Bcf  Prior  -29 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 13 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -8 to - 27 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 13 to - 14 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -29 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders

Natgas COT 4 3 18

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 8 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 13 Bcf

“A 13-Bcf withdrawal would imply a balancing item of -11 Bcf for the week, indicating that the supply and demand models as a whole overestimated production and/or underestimated demand by an average of -1.6 Bcf/d.” ... “Southern Star inventory is not accurate, and will be updated. Instead of a 0.4 Bcf withdrawal for the week, the south-central depleted field total withdrawal is 1.7 Bcf. While the -1.28 Bcf week-on-week change was confirmed by SSC, the underlying history file will be corrected when we confirm their new working gas capacity.”  - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -12 
  • DJ Survey -13 
  • Reuters Survey -14
  • Platts Survey -11 

Analysts

  • AgWxMan - 
  • Gabe Harris -27
  • Genscape -11
  • Kidduff Report -11
  • Shura Li - Pira -10
  • Peter Marrin - SNL -16 
  • Norse -17
  • Andrea Paltry -13
  • Point Logic - 14
  • Robry825 -15
  • Schneider Electric -9 
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -15
  • Trade Mechanics -
  • Andy Wiessman -10 

 

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -24
  • Eclipse - 15
  • Macquarie - 14
  • Raymond James - 15
  • TFS -12

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

  

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

  

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,354 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2051
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1701

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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