Oil & Energy

Google Ad

The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of -29 Bcf After Reclassification from - 20 Bcf less than expectations with futures continuing to listlessly drift sideways.  With cold still hanging around up East it's around 3 weeks in the heating season.

us natgasl locations

The last 5 week's draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season, but does it matter? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 3/29/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday April 5 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 29 Bcf *Prior  -63 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 26 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -21 to - 41 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 23 to - 23 @ CT 15.13

*Note: C=Reclassification. Non-flow-related adjustments decreased working gas stocks by approximately 9 Bcf in the South Central Nonsalt region for the week ending March 30, 2018. The implied flow for the week is a withdrawal of 20 Bcf from working gas stocks in the Lower 48 states. (See Notes and Definitions for more information on "implied flow.")

Last Week's Report -63 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders

Natgas COT 4 3 18

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 23 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 27 Bcf

Warming across the US has dampened demand and dropped sample activity particularly in the East and Midwest, but the southcentral is showing the largest week-over-week change, forecasting a net injection of 12 Bcf for the week. A withdrawal of that magnitude would be much more bullish than the 4 Bcf removed from inventories over the same calendar period, but it is almost right in line with the five-year average draw of 28 Bcf. - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -25 
  • DJ Survey -26 
  • Reuters Survey -26 
  • Platts Survey -27 

Analysts

  • AgWxMan - 
  • Gabe Harris -22
  • Genscape -24
  • Kidduff Report -29
  • Shura Li - Pira -25
  • Peter Marrin - SNL -26 
  • Norse -28
  • Andrea Paltry -23
  • Point Logic - 26
  • Robry825 -41
  • Schneider Electric -22 
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -25
  • Trade Mechanics -27
  • Andy Wiessman -28 

 

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -29
  • Eclipse - 25
  • Macquarie - 28
  • Raymond James - 26
  • TFS -27

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

 

 

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

  

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,383 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2055
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1729

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (1 replies).