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The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of - 63 Bcf less than expectations with futures continuing to listlessly drift sideways. With cold still hanging around up East it's around 4 weeks in the heating season.

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The last 5 week's draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season, but does it matter? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 3/22/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday March 29 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -   Bcf Prior  -86 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 68 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -61 to - 82 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 65 to - 68 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -86 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Weather

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: -  70 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -  65 Bcf

Both are forecast to pull five-year highs (matching by EIA report date). If a 65-Bcf withdrawal is reported, the lower 48 will have dropped 244 Bcf since March 2, as compared to the five-year average of 196 Bcf over the same period. Inventories would stand at 1,381 Bcf, with the deficit to last year increasing to 673 Bcf, and the deficit to the five-year average stocks also increasing to 348 Bcf - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -67 
  • DJ Survey -70 
  • Reuters Survey -70 
  • Platts Survey -70 

Analysts

  • AgWxMan - 
  • Gabe Harris -73
  • Genscape -70
  • Kidduff Report -70
  • Shura Li - Pira -65
  • Peter Marrin - SNL -69 
  • Norse -66
  • Andrea Paltry -70
  • Point Logic -67 
  • Robry825 -68 
  • Schneider Electric -65 
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -63
  • Trade Mechanics -69
  • Andy Wiessman -82 

 

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -73 
  • Eclipse -69 
  • Macquarie -61 
  • Raymond James -77 
  • TFS -68

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

 

 

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,446 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2113
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1775

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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