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The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of - 86 Bcf right on expectations with continuing to listlessly drift lower. With winter still hanging around up East it's a little late for the April contract.

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The last 5 week's draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season, but does it matter? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 3/15/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday March 22 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -  86 Bcf Prior  -93 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 86 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -81 to - 92 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 87 to - 88 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -93 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Weather

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: -  87 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 83 Bcf

“Although lower sample activity is forecasting slightly weaker withdrawals in the East and Midwest regions, persistent below-normal temperatures continue to drive higher-than-expected withdrawals throughout March. The balancing item for the week is forecasted to be -15 Bcf, which is almost 6 Bcf lower than the trailingthree-week average balance.

A -15 Bcf balancing item implies that the suite of supply-and-demand models as a whole underestimated demand or overestimated supply by 2.1 Bcf/d. The relatively mild (relative to early January) temperatures in the south-central last week risks another lower draw than the 11 Bcf we are forecasting, although the flip to net withdrawals in the salts is the reason for erring a bit higher than the error adjustments would imply.” - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey - 88
  • DJ Survey - 88
  • Reuters Survey - 87
  • Platts Survey - 87

Analysts

  • AgWxMan - 
  • Gabe Harris -88
  • Genscape -87
  • Kidduff Report -90 
  • Shura Li - Pira - 82
  • Peter Marrin - SNL - 88
  • Norse - 93
  • Andrea Paltry - 91
  • Point Logic - 89
  • Robry825 - 81
  • Schneider Electric - 92
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -91
  • Trade Mechanics -
  • Andy Wiessman - 91

 

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup - 92
  • Eclipse - 91
  • Macquarie - 88
  • Raymond James - 90
  • TFS - 88

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

  

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

 

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,625 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2305
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1925

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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