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The EIA reported a draw of - 93 Bcf, less than expected. Last week's natural gas inventories drew -57 Bcf the EIA reported with futures stalling at 2.80 on LNG, Mexico and optionality trades.

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The last 4 week's draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 3/8/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday March 15 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 93 Bcf Prior  -57 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 99 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -91 to - 105 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 98 to - 99 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -57 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Weather

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 98 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -99 Bcf

If the EIA were to announce a 99 Bcf withdrawal, it would imply a balancing item of -34 Bcf for the week. That would be in line with the consistently large negative balancing items seen since February, but 3.7 Bcf larger than the three-week trailing average. A -34 Bcf balancing item would imply that the supply and demand suite of models underestimated demand or overestimated supply by 4.9 Bcf/d - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey - 98
  • DJ Survey - 97
  • Reuters Survey - 96
  • Platts Survey - 100

Analysts

  • AgWxMan - 
  • Gabe Harris -97
  • Genscape -99
  • Kidduff Report -101 
  • Shura Li - Pira - 95
  • Peter Marrin - SNL - 101
  • Norse - 93
  • Andrea Paltry - 102
  • Point Logic - 96
  • Robry825 -
  • Schneider Electric - 92
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -99
  • Trade Mechanics -97
  • Andy Wiessman -100

 

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup - 101
  • Eclipse - 106
  • Macquarie - 96
  • Raymond James - 101
  • TFS - 101

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

  

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

 

 

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,625 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2305
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1925

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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