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The EIA reported a draw of -57   Bcf. Last week's natural gas inventories drew -78 Bcf the EIA reported with futures steadily rising towards 2.80 on LNG, Mexico and optionality trades ahead of CERAWeek in Houston.

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The last 4 week's draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 3/1/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday March 8 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 57 Bcf Prior  -78 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 56 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -52 to - 61 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 58 to - 55 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -78 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Weather

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 49 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - Bcf

Will imply a balancing item of -35 Bcf, 8 Bcf higher than the three-week trailing average, but continuing a trend since the start of 2018 of very high negative balancing items. A balancing item of -35 Bcf would imply that Bentek models either underestimated demand, overestimated supply, or likely some combination of both, by 5 Bcf/d for this storage week,” - Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey - 56
  • DJ Survey - 56
  • Reuters Survey - 58
  • Platts Survey - 59

Analysts

  • AgWxMan - 58
  • Gabe Harris -50
  • Genscape -59
  • Kidduff Report -64 
  • Shura Li - Pira - 57
  • Peter Marrin - SNL - 60
  • Norse - 57
  • Andrea Paltry -61
  • Point Logic - 61
  • Robry825 -62
  • Schneider Electric - 56
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -62
  • Andy Wiessman -51

 

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup - 58
  • Eclipse -58
  • Macquarie - 58
  • Raymond James - 58
  • TFS - 57

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,682 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2362
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2054

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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