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Last  week's natural gas inventories drew -191 Bcf the EIA reported giving little boost to futures rest around 12 cents above multi year lows, with warmer weather threats prices remain pressured.

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The 2 week's draws of -199 Bcf, -99 Bcf and -119 Bcf have seen natural gas futures wallowing as with warmer weather is modelled into the shoulder months.  From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/15/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday February 22 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  -  124 Bcf  Prior  -191 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  - 184 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -105 to - 129 Bcf
  • EIA swap: - 120 to -121 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -191 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 123 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 122 Bcf

After last week’s bullish 194 Bcf, the expected drop comes on significant warming across the East and Midwest, which resulted in their estimated draws to decrease by a combined 57 Bcf week on week. A 122 Bcf withdrawal would fall pretty evenly between last year’s reported 92 Bcf and the five-year average draw , which is 145 Bcf,”- Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -121
  • DJ Survey -120
  • Reuters Survey -120
  • Platts Survey -119

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -107
  • Genscape -121
  • Kidduff Report -119
  • Shura Li - Pira -126
  • Peter Marrin - SNL -119
  • Norse -115
  • Point Logic -120
  • Robry825 - 118
  • Schneider Electric -128
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -121
  • Andy Wiessman -119

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -105
  • Macquarie Bank - 126
  • Raymond James - 129
  • TFS -120

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

 

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

- Natgasflow into Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. LNG exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That's a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,884 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2461
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2317 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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