Oil & Energy

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Norway's Rystad Energy, who is considered the leading energy consultancy firm. On July 4th no less they have declared that US reserves are larger than Russia  with 256 billion barrels and Saudi Arabia with 212 billion barrels.

The number is reached by accumulating existing fields, current known discoveries and projected discoveries.

Significantly Rystad said more than half of US oil is in unconventional shale fields. Texas alone accounts for over 60 billion barrels of Texas Tea

The study estimates there is a minimum 70 years of recoverable oil in the world or 2092 billion barrels at current production rates. There are many risks to the US estimate of course with shale costs of production higher, environmental risks and laws and the big one the future price of oil to justify exploration and production.

I would add that this report has been dismissed by many given some of the above points. However one only has to look back at peak oil and the non-existence of Shale Oil not long ago. Who is to say the reserves are not actually significantly higher. Rystad has a history of erring on the conservative side.

On the demand side when oil was being death ridden to the low $20 mark, not less than sic months ago so was the fossil industry despite the negative affect on US jobs, taxes and the economy. What we have seen since is record demand of gasoline in the US, lower production and extraction costs. Clearly price is a factor on all counts as it is in the alternative energy alternatives and currency exchange rates.

Rystad Energy now estimates total global oil reserves at 2092 billion barrels, or 70 times the current production rate of about 30 billion barrels of crude oil per year. For comparison, cumulatively produced oil up to 2015 amounts to 1300 billion barrels.

Unconventional oil recovery accounts for 30% of the global recoverable oil reserves while offshore accounts for 33% of the total. The seven major oil companies hold less than 10% of the total. This data confirms that there is a relatively limited amount of recoverable oil left on the planet. With the global car-park possibly doubling from 1 billion to 2 billion cars over the next 30 years, it becomes very clear that oil alone cannot satisfy the growing need for individual transport.

 

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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