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Last week North America saw the coldest temperatures ever in some areas yet natural gas drew less than expected. Catch up when EIA releases it's weekly natural gas storage report this week?

The previous record draw was 288 Bcf we look to beat it this week with a medium forecast of =335 Bcf. With weather voaltility comes basis market natural gas volaltilty especially in the North East. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cold. Hub prices collapsed after last week's smaller expected draw and has been trying to bounce back to $3 after that rinse.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/4/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday January 11 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  - 359 Bcf  Prior  -206 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -335 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -305 to -365 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -345 to -347 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -206 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

But then the cold crushed those exports:

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: -  335 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -339 Bcf

 “Elevated levels of risk. With such an elevated sample withdrawal this week it is very unclear whether or not historical relationships between sampled and unsampled storage activity will hold in the region....The East and Midwest are also edging close to record pulls, and only the Mountain and Pacific will not have records draws."

Analysts Draw Forecasts

      • Bloomberg Survey - 336 Bcf
      • DJ Survey -  330 Bcf
      • Reuters Survey  - 333 Bcf 
      • Bentek Flow  - 339 Bcf
      • Bentek S/D  -  335 Bcf
      • Gabe Harris  -  314 Bcf
      • Genscape  - 352 Bcf
      • Andy Wiessman  - 332 Bcf
      • Robry825 -365 Bcf
      • Platts - 337 Bcf
      • Norse  - 331 Bcf
      • Shuya Li Pira - 343 Bcf
      • Peter Marrin SNL - 335 Bcf
      • Point Logic - 325 Bcf
      • Kidduff Report - 305 Bcf
      • Schneider Electric -  324 Bcf
      • Donnie Sharp Huntsville - 327 Bcf
      • TFS - 325 Bcf
      • Macquarie - 348 Bcf
      • Raymond James -  362 Bcf
      • Tim Evans Citi  - 310 Bcf

 

The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

 

 

flow into Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That's a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,126 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3318
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3417 

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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