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The EIA releases it's weekly natural gas storage report at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week the market is expecting a large draw. Natural gas hub futures have been volatile as Christmas draws near.

Natural gas futures volaltilty has picked up this week as bets are placed on the Artic ridge weather pattern. Northeast production setting record highs pressuring prices on hints of polar weather delays. For upside risk it would take model shifts combined with Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. All eyes on weather models heading into Christmas.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 12/14/17

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday December 21 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  - 182 Bcf  Prior   -69 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -175 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -163 to -181 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -173 to -175 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -69 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek Says: “The storage week was characterized by much lower average temperatures than the previous week in all regions except for the Southwest and Rockies. While the largest drop in average temperatures occurred in the Southeast, the resulting 3.9 Bcf/d uptick in implied withdrawals couldn’t keep pace with the 4.7 and 5.7 Bcf/d increases in the midcontinent and Northeast regions, respectively. In the midcon market, temperatures dropped significantly, sending res-com estimates up by 3.3 Bcf/d, with power burn, industrial demand and increased outflows contributing another 1.7 Bcf/d of demand growth. Midcon market supply saw less of a change, increasing by an average of less than 0.2 Bcf/d. Sample activity in the Midwest showed a 7.7-Bcf larger net withdrawal than the previous week, at -16.7 Bcf,”

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 172 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 174 Bcf

Analysts Draw Forecasts

      • Bloomberg Survey -  176 Bcf
      • DJ Survey - 172 Bcf
      • Reuters Survey  - 170  Bcf 
      • Bentek Flow  - 174 Bcf
      • Bentek S/D  -  172 Bcf
      • Gabe Harris  - 175 Bcf
      • Genscape  -  176 Bcf
      • Andy Wiessman  - 181 Bcf
      • Criterion - Bcf
      • Robry  -  Bcf
      • Shuya Li Pira -  172 Bcf
      • Peter Marrin SNL - 170 Bcf
      • Point Logic - 172  Bcf
      • Kidduff Report  - 172 Bcf
      • Schneider Electric - 181 Bcf
      • Donnie Sharp Huntsville - 176 Bcf
      • TFS - 175 Bcf
      • Macquarie - 179 Bcf
      • Raymond James - 170 Bcf
      • Tim Evans Citi  - 163 Bcf

 

The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,626 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3827
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3653 

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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