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The EIA releases it's weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week the market is expecting a draw. Natural gas hub futures have sold off agressively under $2.70 Btu as weather models hold off extreme cold.

Natural gas futures have dissappointed bulls yet again with. Northeast production setting record highs and polar weather not arriving as of yet. For upside risk it would take model shifts combined with Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. All eyes on weather models heading into Christmas.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 12/7/17

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday December 14 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  - 69 Bcf  Prior   +2 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -60 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -68 to -52 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -66 to -63 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +2 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek on MidContinent

“Overall demand in the region was up 2.2 Bcf/d, as industrial and power demand also grew by an average 0.2 and 0.3 Bcf/d compared to the previous week. The rise in demand was not met with a corresponding rise in supply, but contrarily a decrease in total supply, as net inflows fell by 0.9 Bcf/d, and production remained nearly flat. Overall supply-demand implied withdrawal figures that indicate the region was short 3 Bcf/d compared to the previous week, adding minor upside risk to the 28-Bcf withdrawal forecast for the Midwest region.”

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: - 54 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 68 Bcf

Analysts Draw Forecasts

      • Bloomberg Survey - 58 Bcf
      • DJ Survey - 59 Bcf
      • Reuters Survey  - 60 Bcf 
      • Bentek Flow  -68 Bcf
      • Bentek S/D  -54 Bcf
      • Gabe Harris  -67 Bcf
      • Genscape  - 68 Bcf
      • Andy Wiessman  -52 Bcf
      • Criterion - Bcf
      • Robry  - 64 Bcf
      • Shuya Li Pira - 60 Bcf
      • Peter Marrin SNL - 57 Bcf
      • Point Logic - 57 Bcf
      • Kidduff Report  -52 Bcf
      • Schneider Electric - 56 Bcf
      • Donnie Sharp Huntsville - 64 Bcf
      • TFS - 60 Bcf
      • Macquarie - 64 Bcf
      • Raymond James -52 Bcf
      • Tim Evans Citi  -53 Bcf

 

The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,695 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3959
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3731 

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

 

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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