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The EIA releases it's weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week The market is expecting a smaller build. Natural gas hub futures are in the midst of testing a major weekly pennant as colder weather demand surfaces. 

Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace. LNG export deliveries were nearly 3.2 Bcf/d Tuesday as both Sabine Pass and Cove Point increased receipts Criterion said. Northeast production set a record high Monday at 25.64 Bcf/d.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 11/2/17

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday November 9 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +15 Bcf Prior  +65 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +14 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +6 to +23 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +13 to +14 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +64 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek says. “The Midwest estimate does have considerable risk associated with it this week, however. The next largest change, week on week, occurred in the south-central region, where an injection of 11 Bcf is forecast, compared to an EIA-announced injection of 25 Bcf the week prior. The East region sample has posted its first net withdrawal of the season at -0.9 Bcf.

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: +16  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +12 Bcf

Analysts Build Forecasts

      • Kidduff Report +20 Bcf
      • Schneider Electric +19 Bcf
      • Point Logic +18 Bcf
      • Bentek S/D +16 Bcf
      • Peter Marrin SNL +15 Bcf
      • Reuters Survey +15 Bcf
      • Shuya Li Pira +15 BcfN
      • orse Gas +15 Bcf
      • Bloomberg Survey +14 Bcf
  • Jared Hunter +14 Bcf
  • TFS + 14 Bcf
  • Raymond James +14 Bcf
  • Criterion +13 Bcf
    • DJ Survey +13 Bcf
    • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +13 Bcf
    • Charlie Fenner Macquarie +12 Bcf
    • Bentek Flow +12 Bcf
    • Andy Wiessman +12 Bcf
    • Gabe Harris + Bcf
    • Robry + Bcf
    • Genscape +10 Bcf
    • Tim Evans Citi +6 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 11/7 (EIA Swap) 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,775 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3955
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3816

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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