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The EIA releases it's weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected. Like Groundhog Day Natural gas hub futures has tried and failed all week to stay over $3.00 and failed yet again as weather demand fails and production has come back on. Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 10/19/17 Release TimeThursday October 26 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +64 Bcf Prior  +65 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +65 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +61 to +70 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +65 to +67 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +51 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: +65  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +68  Bcf

“Overall supply-demand-implied storage estimates for the (South Central) region suggest length of nearly 3.8 Bcf/d compared to the previous week as supply in the region also increased substantially compared to the previous week, mostly due to a rebound in offshore production.” and “Increased res-com demand, coupled with higher outflows from the (East) region and a small bump in industrial demand, were partially offset by a decrease in power burn, but are thought to have driven the week-on-week change in storage activity,” Bentek says.

Analysts Build Forecasts

  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +70 Bcf
  • Point Logic +70 Bcf
  • Schneider Electric +68 Bcf
  • Jared Hunter +68 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow +68 Bcf
  • Norse Gas +67 Bcf
  • Gabe Harris +67 Bcf
  • Criterion +66 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Survey +65 Bcf
  • Reuters Survey +65 Bcf
  • Bentek S/D +65 Bcf
  • Charlie Fenner Macquarie +65 Bcf
  • Peter Marrin SNL +64 Bcf
  • DJ Survey +64 Bcf
  • Shuya Li Pira +64 Bcf
  • Raymond James +63 Bcf
  • Andy Wiessman +63 Bcf
  • Tim Evans Citi +63 Bcf
  • Kidduff Report + 62 Bcf
  • Genscape +62 Bcf
  • Robry +62 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 10/25 (EIA Swap) 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,646 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3825
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3681

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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