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EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 10/12/17 Release TimeThursday October 19 2017 10:30 ET

Like Groundhog Day Natural gas hub futures has tried and failed all week to get over $3.00 and failed yet again as weather demand fails and production has come back on. Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace.  

Market Expectations

  • Actual + 51 Bcf Prior  +87 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +51 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +42 to +64 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +45 to +46 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +87 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather lower 48 states 9 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: +49  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +44  Bcf

Analysts Build Forecasts

  • Kidduff Report + 64 Bcf
  • Tim Evans Citi +63 Bcf
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +62 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Survey +61 Bcf
  • Raymond James +60 Bcf
  • Norse Gas +58 Bcf
  • Andy Wiessman +57 Bcf
  • Peter Marrin SNL +55 Bcf
  • Reuters Survey +55 Bcf
  • Schneider Electric +54 Bcf
  • DJ Survey +53 Bcf
  • Criterion +51 Bcf
  • Bentek S/D +49 Bcf
  • Gabe Harris +48 Bcf
  • Genscape +46 Bcf
  • Charlie Fenner Macquarie +45 Bcf
  • Shuya Li Pira +45 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow +44 Bcf
  • Robry +43 Bcf
  • Jared Hunter 42 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 10/18 (EIA Swap) 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,595 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3748
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3603

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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