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WTI Oil futures volatility continued as storm influence effects linger and EIA reported crude drew -3481kbbl (incl -1476kbbl draw at Cushing)  Crude storage at lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks grew +3474kbbl,  Utilization rose  5.4% to 87.6%. Production +500k to 10,600 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 9/15/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday, September 22, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude

-3481k

-3100k -6422k -6108k
Cushing -1476k -1456k -1103k -1748
Gasoline

+3474k

-1790k -1857k -432k
Distillate -2554k

-2500k

-1689k -2720k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +5.4% to 82.1% Exp +2.5%
  • Production  +500k to 10,600 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

The recovery in US GoM oil output is painfully slow. As today, ~1.39m b/d remains off-line (only 7,321 b/d improvement from Wednesday). The cumulative output loss since Aug 27 stands at 22 million barrels. Shell has declared force majeure on "numerous" contracts

Rig Watch:

  • US oil rigs +7 to 401

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +4 to 253 Eagle Ford -1 to 31 Williston unchanged at 23 Cana Woodford +1 to 18 DJ Niobrara unchanged at 12

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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International oil rigs ex North America

+14 m/m to 587 in August

  • Algeria, Nigeria +4
  • UK, Australia +3
  • Ecuador, China offshore, Vietnam +2
  • Turkey -2 Brazil -3
  • Abu Dhabi -6

 

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Baker Hughes

Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged

US Crude Oil Quick Look

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via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

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API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: WTI chopped all week in a continuation pattern since regaining the 240 cloud after it bounced from -1/8 to rebalance the Chikou at +2/8 to close the week. Continue to watch Kijun reactions and Murrey Math confluence.


 WTI 240 9 10 2021

Daily:  Price action continued from last week's WTI completing its correction of the May breakup in 3 waves (or X) & rebounded from daily cloud base to close back at it just above the 50dma. Support is Tenkan and Kijun as the market rebalances at the Chikou. We got a repeat as fractals continue with oil.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit - hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence. ;

WTI D 9 10 2021
 

Weekly: The weekly Tenkan gives us a clearer view of the rally off the clear ABC off 50wma and the acceleration and recapture of Tenkan and Kijun. Key is the rebalanced Chikou indicative of crowd behavior and 50% fib failure at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 and 5 waves develop. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma. It must retain this energy to take out new highs

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 9 10 2021
 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 27,930 contracts to 273,894 in the week ending August 31 Long-only positions rose by 15,093 Short-only positions fell by 12,837 other reportables net-length rose by 6,743 ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 9 contracts to 272,917 in the week ending August 31 Long-only positions rose by 452 Short-only positions rose by 461 other reportables net-length fell by 17,818 CFTC

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is August  31

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

 

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 373.6 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +17.50 mil YoY


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US consumers spent $1,189.60 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +412.30 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.184 last week. That is +101.60.20 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production  +500k to 10.60 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd 

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix

 

   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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