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WTI Oil futures recovered from recent onslaught as EIA reported crude drew  -2980kbbl (incl +70kbbl build at Cushing, near lowest since Jan 2020, Midwest crude stocks lowest since Oct 2018). Gasoline stocks fell -2241kbbl,  Utilization rose 0.2% to 92.4%. Production +100k to 11,300 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 8/18/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude

-2980k

-3100k -3233k -1622k
Cushing +70k -152k -980k -485k
Gasoline

-2241k

-1800k +696k -985k
Distillate +645k

-500k

-2697k -245k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +.2% to 92.4% Exp +0.5%
  • Production  UNCH to 11,400 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Rig Watch:

  • US oil rigs +8 to 405

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian: +2 to 246
  • Eagle Ford unchanged at 32
  • Williston unchanged at 23
  • Cana Woodford -1 to 17
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 12

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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International oil rigs (ex North America)

+2 m/m to 573 in July

  • Saudi Arabia -5
  • Norway -4
  • Algeria, Brazil, Ecuador -3
  • Abu Dhabi, Mexico, Peru -2
  • Egypt, Libya, Nigeria, Colombia +2
  • Iraq +3
  • Kuwait +4
  • Indonesia +5

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Baker Hughes

Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged

US Crude Oil Quick Look

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via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

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API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Changeh

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: After WTI Oil tested the breakdown from July

4 Hour:: After WTI Oil tested the breakdown from July 14, accelerating  down after the Tenkan crossed the Kijun  impulsively thru the cloud to spit 0/8 and back to the cloud. Continue to watch Kijun reactions and Murrey Math confluence.

WTI 240 8 20 2021
 

Daily: Last week WTI rebound in 3 waves sharply reversed and closed at the daily cloud base, we asked the question is this a 1-2 or the C of the correction off the $76 highs? Recall that WTI sharply corrected in 3 waves the May breakup at -1/8 and the daily cloud (where broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance). We since collapsed back thru tenkan and kijun as the market rebalanced at the Chikou. We got a repeat as fractals continue with oil.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit - hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Resistance is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. ;


 WTI D 8 20 2021

Weekly: WTI Fell back through the weekly Tenkan as it corrects off previous highs in clinical ABC negating at a rebalanced Chikou indicative of crowd behavior around $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Recall first test we didn't quite test Kijun and closed right above it at week's end, this week we did. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 8 20 2021


 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 24,528 contracts to 254,818 in the week ending August 17 Long-only positions fell by 21,658 Short-only positions rose by 2,870 other reportables net-length rose by 7,554

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 6,789 contracts to 280,114 in the week ending August 17 Long-only positions fell by 7,831 Short-only positions fell by 1,042 other reportables net-length fell by 3,959

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is August 17

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

 

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 402.00 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +39.50 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,264.40 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +479.30 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.145 last week. That is +96.30 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.40 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd 

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix

 

   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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