Oil & Energy

Google Ad

The EIA reported a build of +49 Bcf of working gas in storage which continued a trend of tighter supply/demand balances, which have averaged 1.5 Bcf/d tighter than the five-year on a weather-adjusted basis. 5 of the last 7 reports have been tight by over 2 Bcf/d.


us natgasl locations

 

 

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 8/5/2021

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday 8/12//2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  +49  Bcf Prior +13 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +46 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +45 to +49 Bcf
  • Last Year: +115 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +83 Bcf 

Last Week's Report +13 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:2,776 Bcf
  • Storage 2020/Same Week:  3324 Bcf 
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2954 Bcf 

Weather

Forecasts showing the hottest weather of the summer for the next several days. NatGasWeather said the Global Forecast System trended hotter overnight beginning Wednesday (Aug. 11) through Aug. 19. The European model shifted cooler, particularly for Aug. 16-19. The midday GFS then gave back a few of the cooling degree days it had gained overnight, but still was a little hotter compared with the more neutral European model.

Hurricane Season

The National Hurricane Center said over the next few months as the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season reaches its peak. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration raised the number of named storms forecast to 15-21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, up from its May prediction for 13-20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, though its prediction of major hurricanes was unchanged.

With storms we watch Gulf of Mexico production and the impact on demand with the increasingly tight U.S. gas market. In 2020 back-to-back hurricanes in Louisiana knocked offline the Cameron LNG facility, as well as thousands of other Gulf Coast electricity customers for about a month. On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said stocks for the week ending July 30 rose 13 Bcf to 2,727 Bcf.

Renewable generation coming in well below normal

Wind capacity is up more than 15 GW versus 2020, wind utilization has been below normal over the last two months, with July wind utilization realizing around 5% below normal and setting a new five-year minimum for the month. - Reic Fell of Wood McKenzie.  However, it is unlikely that wind utilization would remain that far below normal over the balance of the summer. Hydro output has averaged close to 7 average GW hours below the five-year average so far this summer, according to Fell. This is being driven by a severe western drought, which has added nearly 1 Bcf/d in gas burn relative to the five-year average.

Rigs

Baker Hughes said there were 491 active rigs total in the U.S. onshore and Gulf of Mexico (GOM), compared with 247 for the same period of 2020.

The United States raised two oil rigs and one miscellaneous rig in the onshore.

  • There were 387 oil rigs working, versus 176 a year ago.
  • The domestic natural gas rig count was static for the week at 103, versus 69 a year ago.
  • The GOM rig count also was flat at 14.
  • The United States had 449 horizontal rigs in operation, up by seven from a week earlier and from 211 a year ago.
  • There also were 27 directional rigs working, down by two week/week and from 24 last year. In addition, 15 vertical rigs were in operation, off by two week/week and by 12 a year earlier.

Canada added three rigs for the week, with 156 total in operation from 47 a year ago.

In total, North America’s rig count ended the week at 647, compared with 294 in the year-ago week.

By region

  • New Mexico gained one rig for the week, with 75 total in operation, .
  • Oklahoma also raised another rig to  31.
  • Wyoming saw three rigs added to 16.
  • Texas dropped one rig to 229.
  • California also lost one rig to 5
  •  Permian was the basin leader, with 243 rigs total, up from 122 a year ago
  •  Haynesville Shale had 47 in operation, which is 32 more year/year.
  • Marcellus Shale’s count was at 29, compared with 25 a year-ago period.
  • Eagle Ford Shale had 32 rigs working as of Friday from 11 in the year-ago week.
  •  Williston Basin had 19 rigs in operation, compared with 11 a year earlier.
  • Oklahoma’s Cana Woodford was at 17 versus six a year ago
  • Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg/Niobrara reported 12 rigs at work, from four year/year.

Comments by executives of multi-basin super independent EOG Resources Inc. mirrored those for many Lower 48 management teams.

“We’re not going to grow until the market clearly needs the barrels,” EOG President Ezra Yacob told analysts during a call Thursday. “We’re committed to staying disciplined. Currently, we want to see demand return to pre-Covid levels.”

 h>

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

Natural Gas Market Influence Factors:

Bearish factors include

  • Economic damage and reduced natural gas demand caused by the Covid pandemic,
  • Warm U.S. winter that resulted in weak demand for natural gas for heating.
  • Over long spec positions

Bullish factors include

  • Record foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas as flows to U.S LNG export terminals on April 18 rose to a record 11.921 bcf (data from 2014) and after U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 81 cargoes in November, breaking the previous record of 75 set January of 2020,
  • Expectations that the low level of oil prices will reduce shale drilling and natural gas extraction as a by-product
  • Tighter U.S. nat-gas supplies that are down -14.8% y/y and -2.6% below their 5-year average.
  • High power burns
  • Perception that gas supply and demand are more inelastic than ever before.
  • Over short spec positions

 Image

Image

 

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Quick Look

 Image

US natgas touched a 2 1/2-yr high earlier after the EIA reported a lower than expected injection of just 13 bcf, the lowest for this week since 2016. Just like Europe, stockpiles are building slower than previous years on hot weather demand

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen Aug 5

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy +
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss +
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

 

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Daily: US Natural Gas working around $4.00 and testing Tenkan as it builds a pennant The move after completing the ( C of 4 bullish scenario has played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Tenkan, Kijun and 50dma support. It accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs, we are testing that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.

 NG D 8 6 2021

Weekly: Natural continues to move in a series of 3's spitting the key 50% as Chikou rebalances. Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and bounced off the 50wma. Breaking recent highs on its 3rd attempt. A series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence.

 NG W 8 6 2021


 

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Image

Image

Image

Image

 Image

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Image

Image

Image

Natural Gas Production Watch

Image

Image

Natural Gas LNG Watch

“While year-over-year net exports ran 4.0 Bcf/d higher in April and May, the increase in net exports accelerated to 6.3 Bcf/d in June and 8.4 Bcf/d month-to-date in July,” the EBW team. “Although the dramatic increase was telegraphed to the market in advance, the increase in LNG and pipeline exports to Mexico draws almost exclusively from the South Central region — placing upward pressure on Henry Hub.”

via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

Image

Image

Image

 

  Image

In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

  ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

June 2021

U.S. liquefied natural gas exports were at record high levels in the first half of 2021

Image

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

US natural gas exports to Mexico established a new monthly record in June 2021

Image

 

Image

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Image

Natural Gas Demand Watch

Image

Image

ImageUS Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Image 

Image

 

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

Image.

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

Image

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

 

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data: 

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Aug 3
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
  • +394 longs
  • -2076 shorts
  • +2470 net change
  • 57% net long

Image

Image
  Image

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (0 replies).