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WTI Oil futures circled $72 after EIA reported crude draw of 4089kbbl (incl -1268kbbl draw at Cushing, now at lowest since Jan 2020, Midwest crude stocks lowest since Oct 2018). Gasoline stocks fell -2253kbbl,  Utilization fell 0.3% to 91.1%. Production fell -200kpd to 11,200 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 7/21/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -4089k -3400k +2107k -4728k
Cushing -1268k -1352k -1347k -126k
Gasoline

-2253k

-400k -121k -6226k
Distillate -3088k

+300k

-1349k -1882k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -0.3% to 91.1% Exp +0.5%
  • Production -200 to 11,200 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

WSJ Poll

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Rig Watch:

US Oil Rigs 

  • 491 active U.S. rigs as of Friday compares with 251 rigs in the year-ago period, according to the BKR figures, which are based partly on data from Enverus.
  • Land drilling increased by seven rigs week/week to 387,
  • Gulf of Mexico count unchanged at 17.
  • Horizontal rigs increased by five overall to 439
  • Directional rig added one rig to 33
  • Vertical rigs also added one rig to 19

Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged

US Crude Oil Quick Look

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via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: WTI Oil spat the -4/8 in 3 waves and breaking up thru the Tenkan impulsively to the cloud in a full 8/8 measured move blasting thru Kijun and 50ma. Targets 8/8 +2/8 MM. Support Kijun

WTI 240 7 23 2021

Daily: WTI after completing 5 waves sharply corrected in 3 waves the May breakup at -1/8 and the daily cloud (where broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance). We have rallied sharply back thru tenkan and kijun as the market rebalanced at the Kikou and neckline.  The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support  is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. Resistance is Murrey Math levels and Fib clusters.  

 WTI D 7 23 2021

Weekly: WTI rebounded after corrected off previous highs in clinical ABC negating Monday's collapse to close back above tenkan and at a rebalanced chikou indicative of  crowd behavior around $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil failed to test Kijun (close!) but regaining of Tenkan highlights overall strength Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 7 23 2021

 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 64,702 contracts to 316,789 in the week ending July 20 Long-only positions fell by 56,793 Short-only positions rose by 7,909

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) #OOTT latest value is July 20 other reportables net-length rose by 8,782

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Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 50,786 contracts to 261,841 in the week ending July 20 Long-only positions fell by 58,374 Short-only positions fell by 7,588 other reportables net-length rose by 29,848 ICE

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

 

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 mln bpd last week, -600,000 bpd vs previous week; last 4 weeks #crude oil imports averaged 6.4 mln bpd, +6.9% vs year-ago period - Robert Gibbons @robert__gibbons

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 391.70 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +32.60 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,228.20 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +443.2 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.136 last week. That is +0.961 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production Fall -200 kbpd to 11.20 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd 

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix

 

   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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