Oil & Energy

Google Ad

WTI Oil traded to 3 year highs over $74.20 ahead of EIA reporting a draw in crude of -6718kbbl (including a -1460kbbl draw at Cushing) Gasoline stocks grew 1522kbbl and Utilization rose 0.4% to 92.7% back to the highest since the Pandemic began. Production unchanged at 11,100 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 6/23/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -6718k -4700k -7614k -8153k
Cushing -1460k -1552k -1833k -1318k
Gasoline

+1522k

-900k -2930k +2418k
Distillate -869k

+500k

+1754k +4282k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.7% to 92.9% Exp  +0.7%
  • Production UNCH 11,100 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Rig Watch:

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. oil drilling rigs in the week ended July 2 was 372 (est 377; prev 372), well above the record low posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).

 

US Crude Oil Quick Look

Image

via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

Image

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.?s=apicrudeoil&v=202106292046V20200908 2x" src="https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-api-crude-oil-stock-change.png?s=apicrudeoil&v=202106292046V20200908" alt="United States API Crude Oil Stock Change" style="color:White;">

API Cushing Stocks

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: Since bottoming at -1/8 240 and breaking the tenkan and then confirming the next wave up over the Kijun and 50ma WTI has extended off each tenkan spit as marked. Targets remain +2/8 and above MM. Support is the kijun and 50ma

WTI 240 6 25 2021

Daily: WTI  retested and broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance. We have rallied since we tested and spat the daily kijun,  50 dma and tenkan as the market rebalanced at the mid point of the month's range.  We had been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September. In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support  is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. Resistance is Murrey Math levels and Fib clusters.  

 WTI D 6 25 2021

Weekly: WTI rebounded after corrected off previous highs in clinical ABC and rebalanced chikou indicative of  crowd behavior ahead of $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 6 25 2021

 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

Image

Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is June 8

Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 27,853 contracts to 410,092 in the week ending June 8 Long-only positions rose by 15,632 Short-only positions fell by 12,221 other reportables net-length fell by 10,872 - CFTC

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 23,463 contracts to 290,745 in the week ending June 8 Long-only positions rose by 19,796 Short-only positions rose by 3,667 other reportables net-length fell by 431 - ICE

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen 

COT on energy in week to June 22 saw speculators cut bullish crude oil bets by just 1% while products and natgas got bought

 Image

Week Ended June 22, 2001 via Ole Hansen

Image

Image

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

Image

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

 

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Image

Image

Image 


 

 

DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


Image

 

RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Image
Image

 

Cushing Oil Stocks

Image

 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

Image

Exports

Image

US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

Image

US consumers bought 385.30 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +23.8 mil YoY

Image

US consumers spent $1,190.9 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +421.2 mil YoY.

Image

US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.091 last week. That is +0.917 cents YoY

Image

 

US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production UNCH kbpd at 11.10 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd  

Image

Image

Image

Forecast Oil Production Matrix

 

   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (2 replies).