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Natural gas futures broke $3.20 after the EIA reported a lower than consensus build of +67 Bcf again in gas storage last week.  The market is focusing on demand, option strikes and hedging levels. Gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals last Friday were 10.2 bcf, almost double a year ago.


us natgasl locations

 

 

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 6/10/2021

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday 6/17//2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  +67  Bcf Prior +98 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +74 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +64 to +78 Bcf
  • EIA swap: + to +  CT 15.13

 

United States Natural Gas Stocks Change

Last Week's Report +98 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:2,411 Bcf
  • Storage 2020/Same Week: 2,794 Bcf 
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,466 Bcf 

Rig Watch:

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended June 4 fell by -1 rig to 97 rigs, well above the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).

 

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

Natural Gas Market Influence Factors:

Bearish factors include

  • Economic damage and reduced natural gas demand caused by the Covid pandemic,
  • Warm U.S. winter that resulted in weak demand for natural gas for heating.
  • Over long spec positions

Bullish factors include

  • Record foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas as flows to U.S LNG export terminals on April 18 rose to a record 11.921 bcf (data from 2014) and after U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 81 cargoes in November, breaking the previous record of 75 set January of 2020,
  • Expectations that the low level of oil prices will reduce shale drilling and natural gas extraction as a by-product
  • Tighter U.S. nat-gas supplies that are down -14.8% y/y and -2.6% below their 5-year average.
  • Over short spec positions

 

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Quick Look

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +71
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +72
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy +
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss +68
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +76
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Via Bluegold Trader @bluegoldr

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Daily: US Natural Gas after completing the (ii) of 1 bearish or the alternative C of 4 bullish scenario has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Price has moved over the Tenkan and Kijun through the 50dma, which are now support.  Key is if can cross through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and said highs.  Support is tenkan and cloud

 NG D 6 4 2021

Weekly: Natty has moved in a series of 3's since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and bounced off the 50wma. Testing recent highs on its 3rd attempt.   A series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel., as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

NG W 6 4 2021 

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

Bloomberg data showed U.S. lower-48 state dry gas production on Friday was up +4.2% y/y at 90.814 bcf/d. BofA Global Research team last month forecasted production will average 91.1 Bcf/d this year, up 1.1 Bcf/d from its previous forecast, and 94.6 Bcf/d in 2022, up from 93.8 Bcf/d previously. They say production activity has been exceptionally strong in the Haynesville Shale, with completion activity levels nearing EIA Drilling Productivity Report records. Northeast producers well type curves have started to show significant improvement. Permian Basin activity continues to increase and is getting gassier because of higher Waha gas prices and stronger natural gas liquids pricing.

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

On Apr 18, gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals climbed to a record 11.921 bcf (data from 2014), according to BNEF.

via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

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In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

  ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

February 2021

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

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 US Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen

Funds switching exposure from #agriculture to energy with WTI long (+7% to 410k) at near three-year high. Adding Brent (9% to 291k) the total crude oil long reached a not yet elevated five-week high at 701k. Natgas (+31.4k to 251k) reaching a three-month high.

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Week Ended June 8, 2001 via Ole Hansen

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data: 

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Jun 8
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
  • +20,858 longs
  • +8,465 shorts
  • +12,393 net change
  • 55% net long

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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