Oil & Energy

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EIA reported a draw in crude of -1662kbbl (including a -1008kbbl draw at Cushing) PADD3 (GulfCoast) gasoline inventory drawing back 2.3mbbl from the Colonial shutdown build. Gasoline stocks drew -1745kbbl and Utilization rose 0.7% to 87.0% back near from the highest since Pandemic began. Production unchanged 11,000 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 5/19/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -1662k -900k +1320k -439k
Cushing -1008k -852k -142k -1153k
Gasoline

-1745k

-860k -1963k -1986k
Distillate -3013k

-2000k

-2324k -5137k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.7% to 87.0% Exp  +.3%
  • Production  UNCH kbpd 11,000 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

US Crude Oil Quick Look

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via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

WTI  broke out higher from the congested pennant fueld by the tenkan and 50dma

US Crude Oil (WTI)

Daily: WTI  has formed a double top circa $68 and has failed over +1/8 multiple times giving us clear resistance. Last week we tested and spat the daily kijun and 50 dma to close under the tenkan as the market rebalanced att he mid point of the month's range.  We have been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September, In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This week that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support  is the 50dma, old channel & prev high confluence. Resistance is Tenkan Kijun & 50 dma,  MM and previous highs.

 WTI D 5 21 2021

Weekly: WTI correct off previous highs after it failed to create new highs and rebalanced chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior reverseing at 7/8 after the series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. This move gains support after Kijun tested and broke back through the 50 wma, giving it a kiss of life. It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 5 21 2021

 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Money managers boosted bullish commodities bets by 106k lots to 2.5m lots in wk to April 27. Buying concentrated in surging softs and grains led by sugar, coffee and wheat. Copper and gas oil also in demand while selling of gold was only exceeded by #cattle.

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Speculators bought WTI (+8k) while keeping an unch #Brent position in wk to April 27. The comb. Oil long reached a six-week high at 677k lots. Biggest change being a 15% jump in the gas oil long to a two-year high.

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 398.10 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +112.90 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,202.3 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +535.60 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.020 last week. That is +1.06 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.00 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd  

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix - HFI Research

Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research

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   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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