Oil & Energy

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EIA reported a build in crude of  +1320kbbl (including a -142kbbl draw at Cushing) PADD3 (GulfCoast) gasoline inventory rose a record 5.7m bbl with the Colonial shutdown. Gasoline stocks drew -1963kbbl and Utilization rose 0.2% to 86.3% down from the highest since Pandemic began. Production unchanged to 11,000 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 5/12/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude +1320k +1600k -427k +620k
Cushing -142k -652k -421k +53k
Gasoline

-1963k

-900k +378k -2837k
Distillate -2324k

-400k

-1743k -2581k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.2% to 86.3% Exp  +.3%
  • Production  UNCH kbpd 11,000 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

US Crude Oil Quick Look

via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

WTI  broke out higher from the congested pennant fueld by the tenkan and 50dma grouping at the cloud top. We have completed a corrective 3 wave structure it is now a question of degree, that is an (a) of a 4 or (iv) of a 3. We are now able to retest min targets after CL broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September. In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around often geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This week that was powered by the Tenkan Spit of a spit. Support  is the Tenkan, old channel & prev high confluence. Watch Kijun & 50 dma.. Resistance MM and previous lows.

WTI D 4 30 2021


WTI reumed the uptrend higher after it rebalanced chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior reverseing at 7/8 after the series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Price popped after the 50wma (green) was by touched Kijun above in a kiss of life. Given that we had tremendous energy which bore out in the highs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

WTI W 4 30 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Money managers boosted bullish commodities bets by 106k lots to 2.5m lots in wk to April 27. Buying concentrated in surging softs and grains led by sugar, coffee and wheat. Copper and gas oil also in demand while selling of gold was only exceeded by #cattle.

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Speculators bought WTI (+8k) while keeping an unch #Brent position in wk to April 27. The comb. Oil long reached a six-week high at 677k lots. Biggest change being a 15% jump in the gas oil long to a two-year high.

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 387.40 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +76.70 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,173.10 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +598.00 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.961 last week. That is +1.11 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production UNCH 11.00 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd  

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix - HFI Research

Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research

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   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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