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Natural gas futures fell after EIA reported a less than expected build of +15 Bcf in gas storage last week. The Midwest saw only 7 Bcf injected and salt storage had a build of 5 Bcf, 11 Bcf lower than the same week last year. These surprises suggest a pre-winter inventory level of 3.3 Tcf or lower


us natgasl locations

Spot gas prices across the country were mostly lower on Friday after Thursdays rise with a lift in temperatures. Prices out West were stronger, with the possibility of snow, boosts demand. 

Rigs

The U.S. natural gas rig count held flat at 94 during the week ended Friday (April 23),  a small contraction in oil-directed drilling saw the combined domestic tally ease lower, according to data from Baker Hughes Co.. Oil rigs fell one unit to 343 in the United States for the week, lowering the combined U.S. count to 438. That’s down from 465 active units in the year-ago period,. The Canadian rig count also decreased by one for the week to fall to 55, with a drop in natural gas-directed units accounting for the change. Canada’s 55 rigs as of Friday compares with 26 rigs active at this time last year, the BKR data show.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/29/2021

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday 5/6//2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual Bcf Prior +15 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +15 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -2 to +13 Bcf
  • EIA swap: + to +  CT 15.13

United States Natural Gas Stocks Change

Last Week's Report +38 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:1,845 Bcf
  • Storage 2020/Same Week: 2019 2087 Bcf lower than
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1834Bcf lower than

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Quick Look

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EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +11
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +11
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy -2
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss +14
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +13
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

 

Via Bluegold Trader @bluegoldr

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas after completing the (ii) of 1 bearish or the alternatove C of 4 bullish scenario has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Price has moved over the Tenkan and Kijun through the 50dma, which are now support.  Key is if Tenkan can cross through Kijun. Resistance is the cloud then 8/8 and recent highs. 

 NG D 4 23 2021

Natty has moved in a series of 3's since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and this week bounced off the 50wma on its 3rd attempt making it support. Next support is the cloud.  A series of fractals, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

 NG W 4 23 2021

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

BofA Global Research team recently is now forecasting production will average 91.1 Bcf/d this year, up 1.1 Bcf/d from its previous forecast, and 94.6 Bcf/d in 2022, up from 93.8 Bcf/d previously. They say production activity has been exceptionally strong in the Haynesville Shale, with completion activity levels nearing EIA Drilling Productivity Report records. Northeast producers well type curves have started to show significant improvement. Permian Basin activity continues to increase and is getting gassier because of higher Waha gas prices and stronger natural gas liquids pricing.

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT Freeport set new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3 2020.

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In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

  ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

February 2021

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

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 US Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen

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Week Ended March 16, 2001 via Ole Hansen

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data: 

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Apr 27
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change +7,413
  • Longs +13,672
  • Shorts -6,259
  • Net Long 54% prev 56%

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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