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Natural gas futures ran higher after EIA reported a less than expected build of +38 Bcf in gas storage last week. The focus is on the reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the summer outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

Natural gas futures were higher on Friday buoyed by Robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes, and seasonally strong weather-driven demand. LNG feed gas volumes hovered close to 2021 highs and above 11 Bcf on Friday as export destinations in Asia and Europe continued to buy up U.S. LNG supplies. Pipeline exports to Mexico also held strong around 7 Bcf.

A colder spring weather bid up cash prices most of the week with forecasters calling for below-average temperatures in the week ahead adding heating-degree days (HDD). The European model continued to shift significantly cooler adding 21.3 HDDs over the past 24 hours and extending cooler-than-normal weather through the end of April, EBW Analytics said Friday.

Pipeline Watch

Starting Sunday and continuing until Tuesday, Creole Trail Pipeline said it would perform maintenance at its Gillis Compressor Station. Operational capacity was expected to fluctuate between roughly 1.2 Bcf/d and 1.45 Bcf/d throughout the event, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Preston Fussee-Durham.

“Most notably, the largest impact is to be observed on Monday,” he said, “when operational capacity on the pipeline will be reduced to approximately 1.19 Bcf/d – a curtailment of near 0.3 Bcf/d of pipeline throughput capacity.”  However, Fussee-Durham added Friday, “over the past week, observed feed gas deliveries from Creole Trail Pipeline to Sabine Pass liquefaction facilities has only averaged 1.33 Bcf/d, with single-day maximum observed deliveries of 1.42 Bcf/d. As a result, impacts on the order of approximately 0.23 Bcf/d could be observed” on Monday, “with negligible impacts” on the other days.

Rigs

Oil rigs increased by seven to 344 and natural gas rigs rose by one to 94, according to Baker Hughes data released today. Miscellaneous rigs fell by one to one. The total US rig count is at the highest in about a year. The number of US rigs drilling horizontally rose by four to 398 this week. The number drilling vertically increased by one to 21 and directional rigs rose by two to 20.

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EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/15/2021

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday 4/22/2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  +38 Bcf Prior +61 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +51 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +47 to +55 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +68 to +72  CT 15.13

United States Natural Gas Stocks Change

Last Week's Report +61 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:1,845 Bcf
  • Storage 2020/Same Week: 2019 2087 Bcf lower than
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1834Bcf lower than

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Quick Look

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EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +51
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +51
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy -
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss +48
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +51
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

 

Via Bluegold Trader @bluegoldr

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas after completing the (ii) of 1 bearish or the alternatove C of 4 bullish scenario has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Price has moved over the Tenkan and Kijun through the 50dma, which are now support.  Key is if Tenkan can cross through Kijun. Resistance is the cloud then 8/8 and recent highs. 

 NG D 4 16 2021

Natty has moved in a series of 3's since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and this week bounced off the 50wma on its 3rd attempt making it support. Next support is the cloud.  A series of fractals, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

 NG W 4 16 2021

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT Freeport set new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3.

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In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

  ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

February 2021

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

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 US Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen

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Week Ended March 16, 2001 via Ole Hansen

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data: 

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Apr 13
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change +6314
  • Longs -12055
  • Shorts +18369
  • Net Long 52% prev 50%

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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