Oil & Energy

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Heading into JMMC EIA reported a draw in crude of -876 kbbl (including a 782kbbl build at Cushing). In a volatile week specs bought WTI to 393k, a fresh 32-month high just ahead of a sharp fall in prices. Gasoline demand continues to grow. Gasoline stocks fell -876kbbl and Utilization recovered another 2.3% to 82.9%. Production rose 100k to 11,100 kbpd

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 3/24/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, March 31, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -876k +100k +1912k +3910k
Cushing +782k +752k +203k +904k
Gasoline

-876k

+700k -1935k -6012k
Distillate -2542k

+200k

+3806k +2595k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +7.1% to 75.1% Exp  +7.3%
  • Production  +100kbpd at 11,100 mbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

US Crude Oil Quick Look

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via Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

 

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

WTI  spiked higher over $68 Last week to complete a 5 wave structure and test min targets after broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September, In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around often geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This week that was powered by the Tenkan Spit of a spit. Support  is the Tenkan, old channel & prev high confluence. Watch Kijun & 50 dma.. Resistance MM and previous lows.

WTI D 3 26 2021


WTI continued higher after it rebalanced chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior reverseing at 7/8 after the series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Price popped after the spit of the 50wma (green) which is now key for support as Tenkan touched Kijun in a kiss of life. Given that we had tremendous energy which bore out in the hghs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

WTI W 3 26 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

COT on #commodities in wk to March 23 showed money managers cut bullish bets on 24 futures contracts to 2.4m lots ($117.8 bn), now down 15% in past four weeks from record. Top sales in #oil, #sugar & #wheat with buying concentrated in just #soybeans and #corn

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COT on #oil in the week to March 23, when prices dropped by 11%, saw speculators cut their net long in #WTI (-16.8k) and #Brent (-51.5k) by 9.4% to 659k lots, an 11 week low. Biggest weekly reduction since Nov 3, just before prices began surging on vaccine news #OOTT

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 373.40 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +2.30 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,065.00 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +45.3 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.852 last week. That is +84.70 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production +100 mbpd to 11.10 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd  

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix - HFI Research

Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research

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   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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