The EIA reported a more than expected draw of -36 Bcf in gas storage following extreme cold weather which warmed up faster than many expected leaving production largely unaffected. The focus is on the reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the summer outlook for the US.
April nat-gas prices are moving with threat above-normal U.S. temperatures may curb heating demand for nat-gas. U.S. domestic nat-gas demand has weakened with nat-gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states on Friday fell -12% y/y to 64.1 bcf. Gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals on Friday rose +26% y/y to 11.6 bcf. Last Saturday, gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals climbed to a record 11.92 bcf (data from 2014) according to BNEF.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers after the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended March 20 rose +0.8% y/y to 69,934 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending March 20 was down -1.3% y/y at 3,954,606 GWh.
U.S. nat-gas production remains lower according to Bloomberg data, U.S. lower-48 state dry gas production on Friday fell -1.7% y/y to 91.553 bcf/d, although it has recovered sharply from the 4-year low of 69.045 bcf/d from Feb 17 after freezing temperatures in the U.S. South forced a shutdown of nat-gas wells and processing plants.
Rigs
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended March 26 were unchanged for a fourth week at 92 rigs, an 11-1/2 month high and well above the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
The oil and gas rig count has increased for the past seven months since dropping to a record low of 244 in August, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1940. The pace has declined each month this year, from eight in January to five in February and now zero so far in March.
U.S. oil rigs fell one to 309 this week, while gas rigs were unchanged at 92.
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 3/18/2021
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday 3/25/2021 10:30 a.m. ET
Market Expectations
- Actual -36 Bcf Prior -36 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast - 10 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -5 to - 19 Bcf
- EIA swap: -8 to -11 CT 15.13
Last Week's Report -52 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level:1,782 Bcf
- Storage 2020/Same Week: -253 Bcf lower than
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: -93 Bcf lower than
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
Natural Gas Quick Look
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -24
- DJ Survey +
- Reuters Survey -25
- Platts Survey+
Banks and Brokers
- Macquarie+
- Cti +
- TFS +
Analysts
- AgWxMan +
- Refinitiv +
- Bart Roy -
- Genscape +
- Gabe Harris -
- WoodMac +
- Kidduff Report +
- Platts GW +
- Robry825 +
- The Pit Boss -17
- Norse +
- Andrea Paltry -16
- Point Logic +
- Bespoke +
- Shane Boling +
- Schneider Electric +
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
- NG Junkie -
- EBW +
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.
EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
US Natural Gas has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Bear is this 3 wave is a C of B, bull a developing 5 and we closed under the daily cloud which needs to be recaptured for the natags bulls. Tenkan failed after the arctic blast with more failure after Kijun crossed Tenkan. Support is previous breaks. Resistance is 8/8 and recent highs.
Natty has moved in a series of 3's since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan BUT this week all gave way other than the weekly Kijun in it's larger developing pennant. Support is the cloud and 50wma. A series of fractals, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi
ALERT Freeport set new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3.
In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates
Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
January 2021
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
US Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.
Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999 @ole_s_hansen
Week Ended March 16, 2001 via Ole Hansen
Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)
- For week ending Mar 23
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change +5706
- Longs -3421
- Shorts +9127
- Net Long 51% prev 50%
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk
