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The market was surprised last week after EIA reported a far less than expected draw of -11 Bcf in gas storage following extreme cold weather which warmed up faster than many expected leaving production largely unaffected. The focus is on the reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the summer outlook for the US.

us natgasl locations

The reopening of U.S. natural gas processing plants after the arctic blast has led to a rebound in gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals as gas flows last Friday to LNG export terminals were seen at 11.3 bcf, up +50% y/y. On Dec 13, gas flows to LNG export terminals rose to a record high of 11.6 bcf (data from 2014), according to BNEF.

A decline in U.S. electricity output is negative for nat-gas demand from utility providers after the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Feb 27 fell -1.6% y/y to 73,408 GWh (gigawatt hours), and cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Feb 27 was down -1.6% y/y at 3,952,782 GWh.

U.S. natural gas production has recovered faster than the market expected from the winter storm.  It has recovered briskly from the 4-year low of 69.045 bcf/d from Feb 17 shutdowns of nat-gas wells and processing plants.  Overseas we continue to see strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas following record cold weather in China and the trade war between China and Australia backfiring on the Chinese as they desperately pay up for alternative coal and LNG. Keep in mind the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels are often impulse exhaustions.

Last week's EIA was the second week in a row that the EIA figure was a huge miss and proved decidedly bearish relative to the market’s expectations, adding more selling pressure for the second straight week to futures after the storage report. Analysts said that, over the last two weeks covered by the EIA inventory reports, production recovered more notably than demand following the Artic freeze in February.


The Baker Hughes U.S. oil and gas rig count fell by one to 402 in the week to March 12, according to data on Friday, count is 390 rigs, or 49%, below this time last year.

The oil and gas rig count has increased for the past seven months since dropping to a record low of 244 in August, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1940. The pace has declined each month this year, from eight in January to five in February and now zero so far in March.

U.S. oil rigs fell one to 309 this week, while gas rigs were unchanged at 92.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 3/11/2021

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday 3/18/2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  -11 Bcf Prior -52 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast - 25 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -15 to - 33 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -15 to - 28  CT 15.13

United States Natural Gas Stocks Change

Last Week's Report -52 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:1,845 Bcf
  • Storage 2020/Same Week: -277 Bcf lower than
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: -178 Bcf lower than

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report



Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Quick Look


EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch

EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey -21
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey -13
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +


  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy -
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss -19
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry -15
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly


Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Bear is this 3 wave is a C of B, bull a developing 5 and we closed under the daily cloud which needs to be recaptured for the natags bulls. Tenkan failed after the arctic blast with more failure after Kijun crossed Tenkan. Support is previous breaks. Resistance is 8/8 and recent highs. 

NG D 3 12 2021 

Natty has moved in a series of 3's since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan BUT this week all gave way other than the weekly Kijun in it's larger developing pennant. Support is the cloud and 50wma.  A series of fractals, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

 NG W 3 12 2021

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999






via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly


Natural Gas Production Watch




Natural Gas LNG Watch

via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT Freeport set new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3.





In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

  ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

January 2021






For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy


Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy


Natural Gas Demand Watch



 US Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999






For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.


Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol



Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen


Week Ended September 29, 2000 via Ole Hansen

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data: 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Mar 9
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -7,548
  • Longs +33,265
  • Shorts -40,813
  • Net Long 58% prev 64%

- longs shorts net change




Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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