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Extreme weather hit the US this past week, with basis settlements for the weekend showing extreme price squeezes. Henry Hub natural gas futures show little fear after a less than expected draw of -338 Bcf in gas storage last week and demand changes as the polar vortex takes hold. The focus is on the coronavirus effect on reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the extreme winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

While weather in the US continues to confuse models in the US, meteorologists are anticipating a polar vortex with harsh blasts of freezing temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere and drop temperatures in Europe and Asia. This would add to already strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas with record cold weather in China and the trade war between China and Australia backfiring on the Chinese as they desperately pay up for alternative coal and LNG. Keep in mind the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 2/18/2021

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday 2/25/2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  -338 Bcf Prior -237 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast - 342 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -328 to - 355 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -to -  CT 15.13

United States Natural Gas Stocks Change

Last Week's Report -237 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:3.955 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: +285 Bcf higher than
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: +289 Bcf higher than

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Quick Look

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EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -332
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey -328
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy -
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss -352
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry -355
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+Bcf
“” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas completed were its B or IV ( Bull Case), Bear is this 3 wave is a C of B, bull a developing 5. We saw a kiss of life when Tenkan retested Kijun. Support is Cloud and tenkan. Resistance is 8/8 and recent highs. 

NG D 2 19 2021 

Natty spat the 50 wma  to get over weekly kijun and tenkan which are now support with the cloud.  Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Now we have the beginnongs of a kiss of life. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

 NG W 2 19 2021

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch


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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT Freeport set new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3.

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In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

  ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month. December 2020

US LNG exports by month. Dec was a new high at 89 loads and an estimated 304.3 Bcf.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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Demand By Sector - July 2020 via EIA

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen

 

Week Ended September 29, 2000 via Ole Hansen

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

COT on oil in wk to Sept 29. Sellers returned following a short-lived short covering rally. Funds cut their combined net long by 6% to 402k with #WTI (-6% to 305k lots) seeing the biggest reduction on a combination of long liquidation and fresh short selling.

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COT on Commodities in wk to Sept 29 saw lower prices across all sectors. In response to this funds reduced bullish bets on #oil, #gold, #copper, #wheat and #coffee while adding more length in #corn, #soybeans and #sugar

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Feb 9
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -5972
  • Longs -7177
  • Shorts +1205
  • Net Long 66% Week Prior 57%
  • (Recent high net long 69%)

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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