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Natural gas futures rose after a near expected build of +46 Bcf in gas storage last week and another storm overhung. Large movements on the spreads as concerns grow about Biden banning fracking.  The focus is on the coronavirus effect on reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

The Covid-19 lockdown saw the May EIA STEO forecast a 1.7 Bcf/d decline in industrial gas demand from prior estimates and EOS storage inventories reaching 4,155 Bcf. The report revised total US energy consumption in 2020 down 8.5% from 6% in April. Further to the demand crunch the focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given the ongoing Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date:  10/15/2020

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday October 22 2020 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual + Bcf Prior +46 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +44 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +41 to +49 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +54 to +54 @ CT 15.13

United States Natural Gas Stocks Change

Last Week's Report +46 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:3.614 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 03079
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3195

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

Natural Gas Outlook

 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +
  • Platts Survey+

Banks and Brokers

  • Macquarie+
  • Cti +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy +
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Platts GW +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss +
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Boling +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:Bcf
“” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud. 

NG D 10 16 2020

Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.

NG W 10 16 2020

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

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US July 2020 natural gas dry production was 89.72. That is +1.51 Bcf/day vs June and lower than the peak production of 96.25 in Nov 2019. 

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT Freeport sets new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3.

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In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8

 

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

 

Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month. July 2020

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 For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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Demand By Sector - July 2020 via EIA

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999 @ole_s_hansen

 

Week Ended September 29, 2000 via Ole Hansen

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

COT on oil in wk to Sept 29. Sellers returned following a short-lived short covering rally. Funds cut their combined net long by 6% to 402k with #WTI (-6% to 305k lots) seeing the biggest reduction on a combination of long liquidation and fresh short selling.

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COT on Commodities in wk to Sept 29 saw lower prices across all sectors. In response to this funds reduced bullish bets on #oil, #gold, #copper, #wheat and #coffee while adding more length in #corn, #soybeans and #sugar

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)

  • For week ending Oct 13
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change +1778
  • Longs -9697
  • Shorts +10875
  • Net Long 67%
  • (Prior Week net long) 63%

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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