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Energy storage still distorted from Hurricanes and Covid hit demand. EIA reported a draw in crude oil of -3818kbbl, a build of of +2906 kbbl at Cushing.  Draw in gasoline -1626kbbl. US production was down 500 kpd at 10500 mbpd, off record high of 13.10 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 10/7/20

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday Octpber 15 2020 - 11:00 ET
EIA Expected EIA API
Crude -3818k -2300k -+501k -5421k
Cushing +2906k +2378k +470k
+2199k
Gasoline

-1626k

-1600k -1435k -3930k
Distillate -7244k

-1200k

-962k -3930k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -2.0% to 75.1% Exp -1.5%
  • Production  -500 kbpd  10.50 mbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 10 9 2020


WTI after it's huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.

WTI W 10 9 2020
 

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

COT on oil in wk to Sept 29. Sellers returned following a short-lived short covering rally. Funds cut their combined net long by 6% to 402k with #WTI (-6% to 305k lots) seeing the biggest reduction on a combination of long liquidation and fresh short selling.

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COT on Commodities in wk to Sept 29 saw lower prices across all sectors. In response to this funds reduced bullish bets on #oil, #gold, #copper, #wheat and #coffee while adding more length in #corn, #soybeans and #sugar

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 360.20 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -32.70 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $780.50 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$252.30 mil YoY.

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 US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.167 last week. That is -46.2 cents YoY 

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production -500 kbpd 10.50 mbpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd  

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix - HFI Research

Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research

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   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude:

EIA Products:

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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