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EIA reported a larger than expected draw in crude oil of -10612kbbl, a build of +1309 kbbl at Cushing.with builds in gasoline +654kbbl. and distillates +503kbbl. US production unchanged 11,100 mbpd, off record high of 13.10 mbpd. Futures are reacting to risk off and lockdown demand.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 7/22/20

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday July 29 2020 - 10:30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -10612k +250k +4892k -6829k
Cushing +1309k +1210k +1375k
+1144k
Gasoline

+654k

-1200k -1802k +1083k
Distillate +503k

-600k

-1074k +187k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +1.6% to 79.5% Exp +0.5%
  • Production Unch 11.10 mbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Flotilla of Saudi Crude Tankers Where and When?

Saudis Turn Around ....

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API and Cushing Crude Inventories

CUSHING STORAGE is now just 68% full, down from a peak of 83% on May 1, which should ease concerns about a storage crisis around the NYMEX WTI delivery point. The area has capacity to store up to another +25 million bbl if necessary:via John Kemp @JKempEnergy

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 7 31 2020

WTI after it's huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.

WTI W 7 31 2020
 

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Speculators cut bullish WTI (-15.8k) and Brent (-20.9k) crude oil bets to 538k, a ten-week low, in wk to July 28. A 9% jump in natgas helped increase the net-long to a 16-mth high at 196k lots


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In the week to July 28 where the BCOM index rose 2%, speculators cut length across the major contracts of #oil #gold #silver #soybeans and #corn. They increased exposure in #natgas, #copper and #sugar while cutting short positions in SoyMeal, #cocoa and #coffee

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 370 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -31.5 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $804.7 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$285.30 mil YoY.

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 US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.175 last week. That is -0.54 cents YoY 

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production 11.10 mpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix - HFI Research

Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research

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   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude:

Crude: Another set of record-breaking stats. Crude build of +19.2MM as crude stocks hit above 500MM for the first time since June 2017. Cushing +5.7MM and +15.66 in the last 3 weeks. Refinery runs continue to crater, the lowest level since Sept 2008.

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EIA Products:

EIA Products:Products build of +7.99MM as gasoline and disty build +4.9MM and +6.28MM. Demand in complete freefall as gasoline stocks hit record highs.

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US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research</

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