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EIA reported the first draw in crude since January, highlighted by a 5587mbbl draw at at Cushing. Large builds in distillate sand gasoline..US production fell again to 11, 500 mbpd, off record high of 13.10 mbpd. Futures are elevated from a short squeeze, production cuts and demand pickups but inventories still outstrips demand since the Coronavirus.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 5/13/20

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday May 20 2020 - 9:30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -4985k +1200k -745k -4800k
Cushing -5587k -5412k -3002k
-5100k
Gasoline

+2830k

--2100k --3513k -650k
Distillate +3832k

+1400k

+3511k +5100k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +2.5% to 69.40% Exp +1.1%
  • Production -100k to 11.50 mbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Flotilla of Saudi Crude Tankers Where and When?

 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYCrIF8WAAYmLL8?format=jpg&name=small

API Crude Inventories

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

After WTI workied off the chikou with the outside trend line under $20 in 5 waves it quickly reversed in 3 this week to then collapse to negative -40 for May. For a reversal we need sustained impulse from here. VEry completitive for a major 5. Recall the initial collpase where math and crowd behavior tell the story right to the +2/8 and collapsed back to the break up and now through the channel, accelerating when Tenkan and 50 dma crossed.  Note 1.618 extension of previous emotive wave.



WTI D 5 15 2020WTI has been a series of fractals. expected in algorithm dominated price action From the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to ATL lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications. From here we see need traction to work out from 5 waves. Key resistance is Kijun and 50wma confluence (green) which all failed after the violent spike up. Support channel and fib conflageration with MM 0 -8 and -2-8

WTI W 5 15 2020
 

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports


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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 285.20 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -110.80 mil YoY


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US consumers spent $535.6 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$593.8 mil YoY.

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 US avg retail price for gasoline was $1.878 last week. That is -0974 cents YoY 

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production 11.50mpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix - HFI Research

Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research

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   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude:

Crude: Another set of record-breaking stats. Crude build of +19.2MM as crude stocks hit above 500MM for the first time since June 2017. Cushing +5.7MM and +15.66 in the last 3 weeks. Refinery runs continue to crater, the lowest level since Sept 2008.

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EIA Products:

EIA Products:Products build of +7.99MM as gasoline and disty build +4.9MM and +6.28MM. Demand in complete freefall as gasoline stocks hit record highs.

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US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research</

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