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EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 9/14/17
Release Time: Thursday September 21 2017 10:30 ET

Natural gas futures broke over 3.00 with the upside risk Cheniere Train 4 and warm weather. The reffects of Hurricane Harvey is having an affect. LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico are at or near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace.

Market Expectations

Actual +97 Bcf Prior  +91 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  +90 Bcf
Cons. Range: +84 to +101 Bcf
EIA swap: +88 to +89 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +91 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather lower 48 states 9 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

 

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: + 89 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: + 91 Bcf

The Bentek Flow Model is at 91 Bcf this week and its S/D Model lower at 89 Bcf. Bentek says: “Last week’s EIA release unfortunately does little to inform expectations of the balance this week, as the week contained a holiday and lingering effects from Harvey, while this storage week contained the first effects of Irma. However, because sample visibility in Florida and the surrounding area is generally better than in Texas, it is likely that the supply-demand suite of models more accurately assessed the drop in demand due to the hurricane, making a large magnitude balance unlikely,” and "As such, a smaller positive balance of 2 Bcf is expected. The largest changes in fundamental estimates were in power burn and LNG feedgas demand. Over the course of the week, power burn demand averaged an estimated 3 Bcf less than the previous week. Opposing the dramatic decrease in power burn was a 1.7 Bcf/d uptick in demand from LNG feedgas demand at Sabine Pass.”

Analysts Build Forecasts

  • Bloomberg Energy: 101 Bcf
  • ARM Energy: 94 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Survey: 94 Bcf
  • Team Wells Fargo: 93 Bcf
  • Schneider Electric: 93 Bcf
  • Reza Haidari, ThomsonReuters Analytics: 93 Bcf
  • Criterion Research: 90 Bcf
  • Charlie Fenner, Macquarie: 87 Bcf
  • Kyle Cooper, ION Energy: 87 Bcf
  • Paul Belflower, Mustang Fuel: 86 Bcf
  • Tim Evans, CITI: 84 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 9/19 (EIA Swap) 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,311 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3,490 Bcf/Delta -179 Bcf (-5.1%)
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3,268 Bcf/Delta +43 Bcf (1.3%)

Further Energy Analysis http://www.oottnews.com/index.html

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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