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Natural gas futures were higher on a smaller than expected build of +70 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on cold weather and the coronavirus effect, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

A tricky shoulder season with Meteorologists expect an abnormally hot September but with Imelda just popping up expect variability. October is looking warm in Texas for now but cooler elsewhere. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date:  4/24/2020

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday Apri 30 2020 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +70 Bcf Prior +43 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +73 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +64 to +82 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +74 to +74   @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +43 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:2140 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1313
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1776

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +71
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +69
  • Platts Survey+69

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +64
  • Macquarie+68
  • TFS +69

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Refinitiv +71
  • Bart Roy -
  • Genscape +82
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac +70
  • Kidduff Report +71
  • Platts GW +68
  • Robry825 +77
  • The Pit Boss +70
  • Norse +71
  • Andrea Paltry +66
  • Point Logic +74
  • Bespoke +71
  • Shane Boling +79 -
  • Schneider Electric +76
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +72
  • NG Junkie -
  • EBW +76

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +73  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+68 Bcf
“Soft shoulder season demand for the first half of April was exacerbated by the ongoing demand destruction from coronavirus. Both res-com and industrial demand showed week-over-week declines of 3.2 and 0.8 Bcf/d. On the supply side, US production increased by about 0.2 Bcf/d week over week, with the recent increases split between the midcontinent and Northeast regions.” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural Gas is nothing if consistent, another failed break despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tanken The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3?   Support on downtrend Tenkan.

 NG D 4 24 2020

Natty got above the weekly tenkan but failed to hold it at week's end after the weekly Kijun and 50wma kissed above..  Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death.brought it down from the md $2 range  Much work to do here through channels.

.NG W 4 24 2020

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

US natgas dry production

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US Dry Production For December  Slightly Down From November

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

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 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

 

Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For April 21, 2020.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change +11215 longs -24215 shorts +35430 net change 50% net long.
  • (Prior Weeks 45% 40% 36% 32% 28% 26% 25% 24% 25% 27% 30% 36% 36% 28% 25% 25% 28% 33% 39% 42% 37% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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